Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24465920›Full record

SynthesisPloS one2014

Age-dependent prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of streptococcus pneumoniae before conjugate vaccine introduction: a prediction model based on a meta-analysis.

Olivier Le Polain de Waroux, Stefan Flasche, David Prieto-Merino, W John Edmunds

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Article
  6. Asthma is associated with increasedEuropean clinical respiratory journal · 2025
    Review
  7. Article
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  9. The Role of Neutrophils and Neutrophil Elastase in Pneumococcal Pneumonia.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2021
    Review
  10. Article
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  12. Unraveling the seasonal epidemiology of pneumococcus.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019
    Article
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  16. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Olivier Le Polain de WarouxDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Stefan FlascheDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
David Prieto-MerinoDepartment of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
W John EdmundsDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionData on the prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of S.pneumoniae in all age groups are important to help predict the impact of introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) into routine infant immunization, given the important indirect effect of the vaccine. Yet most carriage studies are limited to children under five years of age. We here explore the association between carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in children aged ≥5 years and in adults compared to children.

methodsWe conducted a systematic review of studies providing carriage estimates across age groups in healthy populations not previously exposed to PCV, using MEDLINE and Embase. We used Bayesian linear meta-regression models to predict the overall carriage prevalence as well as the prevalence and distribution of vaccine and nonvaccine type (VT and NVT) serotypes in older age groups as a function of that in <5 y olds.

resultsTwenty-nine studies compromising of 20,391 individuals were included in the analysis. In all studies nasopharyngeal carriage decreased with increasing age. We found a strong positive linear association between the carriage prevalence in pre-school childen (<5 y) and both that in school aged children (5-17 y olds) and in adults. The proportion of VT serotypes isolated from carriers was consistently lower in older age groups and on average about 73% that of children <5 y among 5-17 y olds and adults respectively. We provide a prediction model to infer the carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in 5-17 y olds and adults as a function of that in children <5 years of age.

conclusionSuch predictions are helpful for assessing the potential population-wide effects of vaccination programmes, e.g. via transmission models, and thus assist in the design of future pneumococcal conjugate vaccination strategies.

Indexed as

VaccinationAge DistributionBayes TheoremCarrier StateDisease ReservoirsHumansLinear ModelsNasopharynxPneumococcal InfectionsPneumococcal VaccinesPrevalenceStreptococcus pneumoniaeVaccines, ConjugatePneumococcal VaccinesVaccines, Conjugate

Identifiers

PMID24465920
PMCPMC3900487

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.