Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24462191›Full record

ReviewPreventive veterinary medicine2014

Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in poultry in the United States of America.

K M Pepin, E Spackman, J D Brown, K L Pabilonia, L P Garber, J T Weaver, D A Kennedy, K A Patyk, K P Huyvaert, R S Miller and 7 more

Open access · hybridAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Preventive veterinary medicine, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
0.6field-weighted citation impact, top 27% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. A Mini-Review on Multi-Hurdle Control ofAnimals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025
    Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Continental-scale dynamics of avian influenza in U.S. waterfowl are driven by demography, migration, and temperature.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2021
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Confronting models with data: the challenges of estimating disease spillover.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019
    Review
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors at 8 institutions in 2 countries.

K M PepinDepartment of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. Electronic address: kimpepin@gmail.com.
E SpackmanSoutheast Poultry Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, GA, USA. Electronic address: Erica.Spackman@ars.usda.gov.
J D BrownDepartment of Population Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA. Electronic address: jubrown1@uga.edu.
K L PabiloniaDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Kristy.Pabilonia@ColoState.edu.
L P GarberCenters for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Lindsey.p.Garber@aphis.usda.gov.
J T WeaverCenters for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Todd.Weaver@aphis.usda.gov.
D A KennedyFogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA. Electronic address: dak30@psu.edu.
K A PatykCenters for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Kelly.A.Patyk@aphis.usda.gov.
K P HuyvaertWarner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: kate.huyvaert@colostate.edu.
R S MillerCenters for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Ryan.S.Miller@aphis.usda.gov.
A B FranklinNational Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: alan.b.franklin@aphis.usda.gov.
K PedersenNational Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Kerri.Pedersen@aphis.usda.gov.
T L BogichFogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. Electronic address: tiff.bogich@gmail.com.
P RohaniFogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. Electronic address: rohani@uga.edu.
S A ShrinerNational Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: susan.a.shriner@aphis.usda.gov.
C T WebbDepartment of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. Electronic address: Colleen.Webb@colostate.edu.
S RileyFogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Disease Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, UK. Electronic address: s.riley@imperial.ac.uk.
Fogarty International Center · USAnimal and Plant Health Inspection Service · USUnited States Department of Agriculture · USAgricultural Research Service - Plains Area · USColorado State University · USPennsylvania State University · USPrinceton University · USUniversity of Georgia · US

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/J008761/1Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 093488/Z/10/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Wild birds are the primary source of genetic diversity for influenza A viruses that eventually emerge in poultry and humans. Much progress has been made in the descriptive ecology of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), but contributions are less evident from quantitative studies (e.g., those including disease dynamic models). Transmission between host species, individuals and flocks has not been measured with sufficient accuracy to allow robust quantitative evaluation of alternate control protocols. We focused on the United States of America (USA) as a case study for determining the state of our quantitative knowledge of potential AIV emergence processes from wild hosts to poultry. We identified priorities for quantitative research that would build on existing tools for responding to AIV in poultry and concluded that the following knowledge gaps can be addressed with current empirical data: (1) quantification of the spatio-temporal relationships between AIV prevalence in wild hosts and poultry populations, (2) understanding how the structure of different poultry sectors impacts within-flock transmission, (3) determining mechanisms and rates of between-farm spread, and (4) validating current policy-decision tools with data. The modeling studies we recommend will improve our mechanistic understanding of potential AIV transmission patterns in USA poultry, leading to improved measures of accuracy and reduced uncertainty when evaluating alternative control strategies.

Indexed as

BirdsAnimal HusbandryAnimalsDisease ReservoirsInfluenza A virusInfluenza in BirdsPoultryPoultry DiseasesUnited StatesAvian influenzaBetween-farm spreadDisease-dynamic modelPoultryQuantitative dataUSA

Identifiers

PMID24462191
PMCPMC3945821
OpenAlexW2169245041

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.