Trial reportPloS one2014
HPTN 071 (PopART): a cluster-randomized trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment: mathematical model.
Trial report in PloS one, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT01900977 (Population Effects of Antiretroviral Therapy to Reduce HIV Transmission), which is not on this map. Cited by 69 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Population Effects of Antiretroviral Therapy to Reduce HIV Transmission (PopART): A Cluster-randomized Trial of the Impact of a Combination Prevention Package on Population-level HIV Incidence in Zambia and South Africa
Who cites it
69 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Pooled it
- Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2017Pooled it
- How do HIV-negative individuals in sub-Saharan Africa change their sexual risk behaviour upon learning their serostatus? A systematic review.Sexually transmitted infections · 2016Pooled it
- Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Point-Of-Care CD4 Testing on the HIV Epidemic in South Africa.PloS one · 2016Pooled it
- Projected outcomes of universal testing and treatment in a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia and South Africa (the HPTN 071 [PopART] trial): a modelling study.The lancet. HIV · 2022Trial
- Effect of Universal Testing and Treatment on HIV Incidence - HPTN 071 (PopART).The New England journal of medicine · 2019Trial
- Trial
- A universal testing and treatment intervention to improve HIV control: One-year results from intervention communities in Zambia in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial.PLoS medicine · 2017Trial
- Antiretroviral Therapy for the Prevention of HIV-1 Transmission.The New England journal of medicine · 2016Trial
- Trial
- Impact of voluntary testing on infectious disease epidemiology: A game theoretic approach.PloS one · 2023Article
- PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Pre-exposure prophylaxis use among HIV serodiscordant couples: a qualitative study in Mozambique.Global health action · 2021Article
- Article
- Integrating and Interpreting Findings from the Latest Treatment as Prevention Trials.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2020Review
- Barriers and Facilitators of Same-Day Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Among People Newly Diagnosed with HIV in Ethiopia: Qualitative Study Using the Transtheoretical Model of Behavioral Change.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2020Article
- Contribution of high risk groups' unmet needs may be underestimated in epidemic models without risk turnover: A mechanistic modelling analysis.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Optimizing the development and evaluation of complex interventions: lessons learned from the BetterBirth Program and associated trial.Implementation science communications · 2020Article
- Treatment as Prevention: Concepts and Challenges for Reducing HIV Incidence.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2019Article
- Structural Design and Data Requirements for Simulation Modelling in HIV/AIDS: A Narrative Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2019Review
9 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
17 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe HPTN 052 trial confirmed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can nearly eliminate HIV transmission from successfully treated HIV-infected individuals within couples. Here, we present the mathematical modeling used to inform the design and monitoring of a new trial aiming to test whether widespread provision of ART is feasible and can substantially reduce population-level HIV incidence. METHODS AND
findingsThe HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is a three-arm cluster-randomized trial of 21 large population clusters in Zambia and South Africa, starting in 2013. A combination prevention package including home-based voluntary testing and counseling, and ART for HIV positive individuals, will be delivered in arms A and B, with ART offered universally in arm A and according to national guidelines in arm B. Arm C will be the control arm. The primary endpoint is the cumulative three-year HIV incidence. We developed a mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission, informed by recent data on HIV-1 natural history. We focused on realistically modeling the intervention package. Parameters were calibrated to data previously collected in these communities and national surveillance data. We predict that, if targets are reached, HIV incidence over three years will drop by >60% in arm A and >25% in arm B, relative to arm C. The considerable uncertainty in the predicted reduction in incidence justifies the need for a trial. The main drivers of this uncertainty are possible community-level behavioral changes associated with the intervention, uptake of testing and treatment, as well as ART retention and adherence.
conclusionsThe HPTN 071 (PopART) trial intervention could reduce HIV population-level incidence by >60% over three years. This intervention could serve as a paradigm for national or supra-national implementation. Our analysis highlights the role mathematical modeling can play in trial development and monitoring, and more widely in evaluating the impact of treatment as prevention.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.