Risk profiles for metabolic syndrome and its transition patterns for the elderly in Beijing, 1992-2009.

There have been few reports on the development of metabolic disorders, especially when they are considered as a cluster. The purpose of this study was to describe risk profiles for metabolic syndrome (MetS) in elderly dwellers in Beijing, and to find their transition patterns over time. Data were derived from Beijing longitudinal study of aging, a community-based cohort study hosted by Xuanwu hospital. There were 3,257 elderly people aged 55 years or over recruited in 1992. MetS was assessed for the years 1992, 2000, and 2009. Finally, 363 subjects with complete information for components of MetS in the three years were included in the study. The criteria of MetS recommended by the joint interim statement criteria were adopted. Latent transition analysis was used to calculate the transition probabilities between adjacent visits. A risk typology consisting of four time-invariant groups was detected based on the components of MetS for all subjects. Low MetS risk group, BP risk group, BP-HDL risk group, and BP-FPG-TG risk group were found. The probability of staying at the same status was higher at the two intervals across 18 years. Four latent groups were extracted based on three assessments for the components of MetS, together with their transition patterns. Findings suggested various trajectories for MetS components. Different combinations of intervention strategy might be needed for MetS risk groups.