ArticleDiabetes research and clinical practice2014
Comparison of type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against the International Diabetes Federation and other modelling studies.
Article in Diabetes research and clinical practice, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 46 papers.
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Who cites it
46 citing papers in PubMed.
- Impact of an integrated care program on glycemic control and cardiovascular risk factors in patients with type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia: an interventional parallel-group controlled study.BMC family practice · 2018Trial
- Effects of a Psychoeducational Program on Hemoglobin A1c Level and Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, Jazan, Saudi Arabia.BioMed research international · 2018Trial
- Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Saudi Arabia: Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Management Strategies: A Review.Endocrine, metabolic & immune disorders drug targets · 2026Review
- Knowledge, attitude, and practice of family physicians toward diabetic nephropathy. Perspective of family physicians in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2024.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2025Article
- Short-Term Laboratory Outcomes of SGLT2 Inhibitor Use in Type 2 Diabetic Patients: A Retrospective Analysis.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- Article
- Cardiovascular and renal comorbidities among saudi patients with type 2 diabetes: A cross-sectional observational study.PloS one · 2025Observational
- Indirect estimation of the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the sub-population of Tehran: using non-laboratory risk-score models in Iran.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2024Article
- Alveolar Bone Loss in Diabetic Patients: A Case-Control Study.European journal of dentistry · 2024Article
- Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Examining the Genetic Role of rs8192675 Variant in Saudi Women Diagnosed with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Article
- A Prospective Cross-Sectional Study of Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients' Quality of Life and Drug Prescription Patterns at Riyadh Region Hospitals, Saudi Arabia.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Adverse Childhood Experience as a Risk Factor for Developing Type 2 Diabetes among the Jazan Population: A Cross-Sectional Study.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses.Journal of diabetes investigation · 2021Article
- SIRT6‑specific inhibitor OSS‑128167 exacerbates diabetic cardiomyopathy by aggravating inflammation and oxidative stress.Molecular medicine reports · 2021Article
- Risk Predictors of High Uric Acid Levels Among Patients with Type-2 Diabetes.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2021Article
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Abstract
aimsTo compare the estimates and projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against other modelling estimates, such as those produced by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project.
methodsA discrete-state Markov model was developed and validated that integrates data on population, obesity and smoking prevalence trends in adult Saudis aged ≥25 years to estimate the trends in T2DM prevalence (annually from 1992 to 2022). The model was validated by comparing the age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates against a national survey conducted in 2005.
resultsPrevalence estimates from this new Markov model were consistent with the 2005 national survey and very similar to the GBD study estimates. Prevalence in men and women in 2000 was estimated by the GBD model respectively at 17.5% and 17.7%, compared to 17.7% and 16.4% in this study. The IDF estimates of the total diabetes prevalence were considerably lower at 16.7% in 2011 and 20.8% in 2030, compared with 29.2% in 2011 and 44.1% in 2022 in this study.
conclusionIn contrast to other modelling studies, both the Saudi IMPACT Diabetes Forecast Model and the GBD model directly incorporated the trends in obesity prevalence and/or body mass index (BMI) to inform T2DM prevalence estimates. It appears that such a direct incorporation of obesity trends in modelling studies results in higher estimates of the future prevalence of T2DM, at least in countries where obesity has been rapidly increasing.
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