Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24429243›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Respiratory medicine2013

Polygenic risk and the development and course of asthma: an analysis of data from a four-decade longitudinal study.

Daniel W Belsky, Malcolm R Sears, Robert J Hancox, Honalee Harrington, Renate Houts, Terrie E Moffitt, Karen Sugden, Benjamin Williams, Richie Poulton, Avshalom Caspi

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Respiratory medicine, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
48citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.5field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

48 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 90 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Mechanisms and therapeutic strategies of asthma: from bench to bedside.Signal transduction and targeted therapy · 2026
    Review
  4. Cumulative genetic risk for asthma contributes to disease severity in children with asthma.The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. Global · 2026
    Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Asthma-Genomic Advances Toward Risk Prediction.Clinics in chest medicine · 2024
    Review
  10. Article
  11. The Value Proposition of Coordinated Population Cohorts Across Africa.Annual review of biomedical data science · 2024
    Review
  12. Genetics of chronic respiratory disease.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2024
    Review
  13. Article
  14. A Polygenic Risk Score for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and Interstitial Lung Abnormalities.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2023
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Multiancestral polygenic risk score for pediatric asthma.The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology · 2022
    Article
  18. The role of epigenetics in multi-generational transmission of asthma: An NIAID workshop report-based narrative review.Clinical and experimental allergy : journal of the British Society for Allergy and Clinical Immunology · 2022
    Review
  19. Article
  20. Holy Grail: the journey towards disease modification in asthma.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2022
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.

Daniel W BelskyCenter for the Study of Aging and Human Development, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA; Institute for Genome Sciences and Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA. Electronic address: dbelsky@duke.edu.
Malcolm R SearsDivision of Respirology, Department of Medicine, DeGroote School of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Robert J HancoxDepartment of Preventive and Social Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Honalee HarringtonDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA; Institute for Genome Sciences and Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Renate HoutsDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA; Institute for Genome Sciences and Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Terrie E MoffittDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA; Institute for Genome Sciences and Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK.
Karen SugdenInstitute for Genome Sciences and Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK.
Benjamin WilliamsInstitute for Genome Sciences and Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK.
Richie PoultonDepartment of Preventive and Social Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Avshalom CaspiDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA; Institute for Genome Sciences and Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA; Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK.
Duke University Hospital · USKing's College London · GBUniversity of Otago · NZDuke University · USMcMaster University · CA

Funding

Is mental disorder a preventable cause of age-related disease? The Dunedin Study.R01AG032282 · NIA · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI CASPI, AVSHALOM, MOFFITT, TERRIE E · 2009 to 2025
$9.5M
BEHAVIOR AND PHYSIOLOGY IN AGINGT32AG000029 · NIA · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI Maria Marquine · 1985 to 2026
$9.3M
Evaluating the Comparative Effectiveness of Genomic Health Risk Assessments for CR36HS020524 · AHRQ · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI BELSKY, DANIEL WALKER · 2011 to 2011
$41k
AHRQ HHS R36 HS020524Medical Research Council G0601483Medical Research Council MR/K00381X/1NIA NIH HHS AG032282NIA NIH HHS R01 AG032282NIA NIH HHS T32 AG000029NIMHD NIH HHS L60 MD007327
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGenome-wide association studies (GWAS) have discovered genetic variants that predispose individuals to asthma. To integrate these new discoveries with emerging models of asthma pathobiology, we aimed to test how genetic discoveries relate to developmental and biological characteristics of asthma.

methodsIn this prospective longitudinal study, we investigated a multilocus profile of genetic risk derived from published GWAS of asthma case status. We then tested associations between this genetic risk score and developmental and biological characteristics of asthma in participants enrolled in a population-based long-running birth cohort, the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (n=1037). We used data on asthma onset, asthma persistence, atopy, airway hyper-responsiveness, incompletely reversible airflow obstruction, and asthma-related school and work absenteeism and hospital admissions obtained during nine prospective assessments spanning the ages of 9 to 38 years. Analyses included cohort members of European descent from whom genetic data had been obtained.

findingsOf the 880 cohort members included in our analysis, those at higher genetic risk developed asthma earlier in life than did those with lower genetic risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1·12, 95% CI 1·01-1·26). Of cohort members with childhood-onset asthma, those with higher genetic risk were more likely to develop life-course-persistent asthma than were those with a lower genetic risk (relative risk [RR] 1·36, 95% CI 1·14-1·63). Participants with asthma at higher genetic risk more often had atopy (RR 1·07, 1·01-1·14), airway hyper-responsiveness (RR 1·16, 1·03-1·32), and incompletely reversible airflow obstruction (RR 1·28, 1·04-1·57) than did those with a lower genetic risk. They were also more likely to miss school or work (incident rate ratio 1·38, 1·02-1·86) and be admitted to hospital (HR 1·38, 1·07-1·79) because of asthma. Genotypic information about asthma risk was independent of and additive to information derived from cohort members' family histories of asthma.

interpretationOur findings confirm that GWAS discoveries for asthma are associated with a childhood-onset phenotype. Genetic risk assessments might be able to predict which childhood-onset asthma cases remit and which become life-course-persistent, who might develop impaired lung function, and the burden of asthma in terms of missed school and work and hospital admissions, although these predictions are not sufficiently sensitive or specific to support immediate clinical translation.

fundingUS National Institute on Aging and UK Medical Research Council.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAsthmaChildFemaleGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMultifactorial InheritancePhenotypeProspective StudiesRisk FactorsROC CurveYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID24429243
PMCPMC3899706
OpenAlexW2134955583

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.