Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24423345›Full record

Observational studyThe Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism2014

Empirically based composite fracture prediction model from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women (GLOW).

Gordon FitzGerald, Juliet E Compston, Roland D Chapurlat, Johannes Pfeilschifter, Cyrus Cooper, David W Hosmer, Jonathan D Adachi, Frederick A Anderson, Adolfo Díez-Pérez, Susan L Greenspan and 12 more

Abstract readMulticenter StudyObservational Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Diversity in fall characteristics hampers effective prevention: the precipitants, the environment, the fall and the injury.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2017
    Article
  5. The FRAX-based Lebanese osteoporosis treatment guidelines: rationale for a hybrid model.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2017
    Article
  6. Bone: Which model to predict fracture risk?Nature reviews. Endocrinology · 2014
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Gordon FitzGeraldCenter for Outcomes Research (G.F., D.W.H., F.A.A., F.H.H., S.H.G.) University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts 01605; University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine (J.E.C.), Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge CB2 0QQ, United Kingdom; Division of Rheumatology (R.D.C.), INSERM Unité Mixte de Recherche 1033, Université de Lyon, and Department of Orthopedics and Rheumatology, Hôpital E. Herriot, 69003 Lyon, France; Department of Internal Medicine III (J.P.), Alfried Krupp Krankenhaus, Essen D-45276, Germany; Medical Research Council Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit (C.C.), University of Southampton, Southampton General Hospital, Southampton SO16 6YD, United Kingdom; National Institute for Health Research Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit (C.C.), University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QX, United Kingdom; St Joseph's Hospital (J.D.A.), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8N 1Y2; Hospital del Mar-IMIM-Autonomous University of Barcelona (A.D.-P.), 08035 Barcelona, Spain; Research Network on Aging and Frailty, Le Fonds européen de développement régional (European Regional Development Fund), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, 28029 Madrid, Spain; University of Pittsburgh (S.L.G.), Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213; Department of Endocrinology (J.C.N.), VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam 2131PM Hoofddorp, The Netherlands; Helen Hayes Hospital and Columbia University (J.W.N.), West Haverstraw, New York 10993; Section of Rheumatology (M.R.), Department of Medicine, University of Verona, 37129 Verona, Italy; Mercy Health (N.B.W.), Cincinnati, Ohio 45236; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (A.Z.L.), Seattle, Washington 98109; University of Sydney Institute of Bone and Joint Research and Department of Rheumatology (L.M.), Royal North Shore Hospital, 2006 Sydney, Australia; Paris Descartes University and Cochin Hospital (C.R.), 75014 Paris, France; Division of Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology (K.G.S.), University of Alabama at Bir
Juliet E Compston
Roland D Chapurlat
Johannes Pfeilschifter
Cyrus Cooper
David W Hosmer
Jonathan D Adachi
Frederick A Anderson
Adolfo Díez-Pérez
Susan L Greenspan
J Coen Netelenbos
Jeri W Nieves
Maurizio Rossini
Nelson B Watts
Frederick H Hooven
Andrea Z LaCroix
Lyn March
Christian Roux
Kenneth G Saag
Ethel S Siris
Stuart Silverman
Stephen H Gehlbach

Funding

VARIABILITY, STABILITY & SMOOTHNESS OF WALKINGP30AG024827 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI Caterina Rosano · 2004 to 2026
$28.6M
Medical Research Council MC_U147585824Medical Research Council MC_UP_A620_1014Medical Research Council MC_UU_12011/1NIA NIH HHS P30 AG024827
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

contextSeveral fracture prediction models that combine fractures at different sites into a composite outcome are in current use. However, to the extent individual fracture sites have differing risk factor profiles, model discrimination is impaired.

objectiveThe objective of the study was to improve model discrimination by developing a 5-year composite fracture prediction model for fracture sites that display similar risk profiles.

designThis was a prospective, observational cohort study.

settingThe study was conducted at primary care practices in 10 countries. PATIENTS: Women aged 55 years or older participated in the study.

interventionSelf-administered questionnaires collected data on patient characteristics, fracture risk factors, and previous fractures.

main outcome measureThe main outcome is time to first clinical fracture of hip, pelvis, upper leg, clavicle, or spine, each of which exhibits a strong association with advanced age.

resultsOf four composite fracture models considered, model discrimination (c index) is highest for an age-related fracture model (c index of 0.75, 47 066 women), and lowest for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) major fracture and a 10-site model (c indices of 0.67 and 0.65). The unadjusted increase in fracture risk for an additional 10 years of age ranges from 80% to 180% for the individual bones in the age-associated model. Five other fracture sites not considered for the age-associated model (upper arm/shoulder, rib, wrist, lower leg, and ankle) have age associations for an additional 10 years of age from a 10% decrease to a 60% increase.

conclusionsAfter examining results for 10 different bone fracture sites, advanced age appeared the single best possibility for uniting several different sites, resulting in an empirically based composite fracture risk model.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsCohort StudiesFemaleFractures, BoneHumansLongitudinal StudiesMiddle AgedOsteoporosis, PostmenopausalPrognosisRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID24423345
PMCPMC5393481

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.