ArticleJournal of theoretical biology2014
Probabilistic differential diagnosis of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) using the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases.
Article in Journal of theoretical biology, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating undiagnosed HIV infections by age group in Japan: an extended age-dependent back-calculation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Mathematical analysis of stochastic epidemic model of MERS-corona & application of ergodic theory.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
- Epidemiological Identification of A Novel Pathogen in Real Time: Analysis of the Atypical Pneumonia Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2019-2020.Journal of clinical medicine · 2020Article
- Estimating the incidence and diagnosed proportion of HIV infections in Japan: a statistical modeling study.PeerJ · 2019Article
- Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015.Biomedical engineering online · 2017Article
- Article
- Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics: Recent Research and Trends in the United States.Yearbook of medical informatics · 2015Review
- What's Past is Prologue: A Scoping Review of Recent Public Health and Global Health Informatics Literature.Online journal of public health informatics · 2015Article
- Cost-effective length and timing of school closure during an influenza pandemic depend on the severity.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2014Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) has spread worldwide since 2012. As the clinical symptoms of MERS tend to be non-specific, the incubation period has been shown to complement differential diagnosis, especially to rule out influenza. However, because an infection event is seldom directly observable, the present study aims to construct a diagnostic model that predicts the probability of MERS diagnosis given the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases which are suspected of MERS. Addressing censoring by considering the transmission dynamics in an exporting country, we demonstrate that the illness onset within 2 days from immigration is suggestive of influenza. Two exceptions to suspect MERS even for those with illness onset within 2 days since immigration are (i) when we observe substantial community transmissions of MERS and (ii) when the cases are at high risk of MERS (e.g. cases with close contact in hospital or household). It is vital to collect the information of the incubation period upon emergence of a novel infectious disease, and moreover, in our model, the fundamental transmission dynamics including the initial growth rate has to be explored to differentiate the disease diagnoses with non-specific symptoms.
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