ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2014
Individualized estimates of overdiagnosis in screen-detected prostate cancer.
Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 56 citations in OpenAlex.
- Genome-wide association study of prostate-specific antigen levels in 392,522 men identifies new loci and improves prediction across ancestry groups.Nature genetics · 2025Pooled it
- Genetically adjusted PSA levels for prostate cancer screening.Nature medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Quantifying and monitoring overdiagnosis in cancer screening: a systematic review of methods.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2015Pooled it
- The Effect of Start and Stop Age at Screening on the Risk of Being Diagnosed with Prostate Cancer.The Journal of urology · 2016Trial
- Canadian Prostate Cancer Trends in the Context of PSA Screening Guideline Changes.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2025Article
- Trends in stage-specific prostate cancer incidence by neighborhood socioeconomic status.JNCI cancer spectrum · 2025Article
- Impact of patients' age and comorbidities on prostate cancer overdiagnosis in clinical practice.PloS one · 2025Article
- Prostate cancer screening in African American men: a review of the evidence.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2024Review
- Harm-to-Benefit of Three Decades of Prostate Cancer Screening in Black Men.NEJM evidence · 2022Article
- Characterizing the aggressiveness of prostate cancer using an all-optical needle photoacoustic sensing probe: feasibility study.Biomedical optics express · 2021Article
- Detection of Prostate Cancer Antigen 3 and Prostate Cancer Susceptibility Candidate in Non-DRE Urine Improves Diagnosis of Prostate Cancer in Chinese Population.Prostate cancer · 2020Article
- Personalized Risks of Over Diagnosis for Screen Detected Prostate Cancer Incorporating Patient Comorbidities: Estimation and Communication.The Journal of urology · 2019Article
- Is Ki67 prognostic for aggressive prostate cancer? A multicenter real-world study.Biomarkers in medicine · 2018Article
- Racial disparities in prostate cancer survival in a screened population: Reality versus artifact.Cancer · 2018Article
- Stopping screening, when and how?Translational andrology and urology · 2018Review
- A panel of DNA methylation markers for the detection of prostate cancer from FV and DRE urine DNA.Clinical epigenetics · 2018Article
- Outcomes of Active Surveillance for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: A Computational Risk Analysis.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2016Article
- A System Dynamics Model of Serum Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening for Prostate Cancer.American journal of epidemiology · 2016Article
- The ProCaSP study: quality of life outcomes of prostate cancer patients after radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy in a cohort study.BMC urology · 2015Article
- Screening for prostate cancer in the US? Reduce the harms and keep the benefit.International journal of cancer · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on byA model too far.2014
Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe chance that a prostate cancer detected by screening is overdiagnosed (ie, it would not have been detected in the absence of screening) can vary widely depending on the patient's age and tumor characteristics. The purpose of this study is to use age, Gleason score, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level to help inform patients with screen-detected prostate cancers about the chances their cancers were overdiagnosed.
methodsA computer microsimulation model of prostate cancer natural history was used to generate virtual life histories in the presence and absence of PSA screening, including an indicator of whether screen-detected cancers are overdiagnosed. A logistic regression model was fit to nonmetastatic patients diagnosed by screening with PSA less than 10 ng/mL, and a nomogram was created to predict the individualized risk of overdiagnosis given age, Gleason score, and PSA at diagnosis.
resultsThe calibrated microsimulation model closely reproduces observed incidence trends in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries by age, stage, and Gleason score. The fitted logistic regression predicts risks of overdiagnosis among PSA-detected patients with an area under the curve of 0.75. Chances of overdiagnosis range from 2.9% to 88.1%.
conclusionsThe chances of overdiagnosis vary considerably by age, Gleason score, and PSA at diagnosis. The overdiagnosis nomogram presents tailored estimates of these risks based on patient and tumor information known at diagnosis and can be used to inform decisions about treating PSA-detected prostate cancers.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.