Assessment of malaria incidence using the Richards model in Arunachal Pradesh, India.

Monitoring of malaria intensity in terrain regions of Arunachal Pradesh, India is very difficult as the dynamics of mosquito populations varies to a large extent due to altitude and frequent changes in climatic conditions. There is a scarcity of information on the influence of climatic factors on malaria morbidity in Arunachal Pradesh. Hence, a pilot study was conducted from 2006 to 2010 to understand malaria transmission dynamics, seasonal distribution and disease morbidity. Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum are the two major parasites for malaria transmission in Arunachal Pradesh. Out of 142 558 malaria cases analysed from 2006 to 2010, P. vivax infection contributed 72·1% followed by P. falciparum (27·9%). However, the overall morbidity of malaria declined from 37/1000 in 2006 to 18/1000 population in 2010. From this study it was observed that the temporal distribution of malaria cases varied between districts and high morbidity rates were reported mostly during the wet season. To understand malaria transmission dynamics in the study area, the Richards model was used to predict malaria cases. The output of the results from this model predicted a higher number of malaria cases (K) during 2006 and a gradual decline in subsequent years. Similarly, the growth rate r, and exponential deviation α, were almost identical for all the years, which shows that the Richards model is the most suitable model for the prediction of malaria cases.