ArticleDemography2014
Mortality deceleration and mortality selection: three unexpected implications of a simple model.
Article in Demography, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Gerontology lost in translation from demography to biology of aging and back.Biogerontology · 2026Review
- State-Level Education Quality and Trajectories of Cognitive Function by Race and Educational Attainment.The Milbank quarterly · 2024Article
- An underappreciated peculiarity of late-life human mortality kinetics assessed through the lens of a generalization of the Gompertz-Makeham law.Biogerontology · 2024Article
- Black and white differences in subjective survival expectations: An evaluation of competing mechanisms.SSM - population health · 2023Article
- Multidimensional Mortality Selection: Why Individual Dimensions of Frailty Don't Act Like Frailty.Demography · 2020Article
- Urinary markers of oxidative stress respond to infection and late-life in wild chimpanzees.PloS one · 2020Article
- Detecting the Effects of Early-Life Exposures: Why Fecundity Matters.Population research and policy review · 2019Article
- Robust Respondents and Lost Limitations: The Implications of Nonrandom Missingness for the Estimation of Health Trajectories.Journal of aging and health · 2019Article
- Review
- The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old-Age Mortality Estimates.Demography · 2017Article
- Article
- On the beginning of mortality acceleration.Demography · 2015Article
- Unobserved Population Heterogeneity and Dynamics of Health Disparities.Demographic researchArticle
- A simulation study of the role of cohort forces in mortality patterns.Biodemography and social biologyArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
Unobserved heterogeneity in mortality risk is pervasive and consequential. Mortality deceleration-the slowing of mortality's rise with age-has been considered an important window into heterogeneity that otherwise might be impossible to explore. In this article, I argue that deceleration patterns may reveal surprisingly little about the heterogeneity that putatively produces them. I show that even in a very simple model-one that is composed of just two subpopulations with Gompertz mortality-(1) aggregate mortality can decelerate even while a majority of the cohort is frail; (2) multiple decelerations are possible; and (3) mortality selection can produce acceleration as well as deceleration. Simulations show that these patterns are plausible in model cohorts that in the aggregate resemble cohorts in the Human Mortality Database. I argue that these results challenge some conventional heuristics for understanding the relationship between selection and deceleration; undermine certain inferences from deceleration timing to patterns of social inequality; and imply that standard parametric models, assumed to plateau at most once, may sometimes badly misestimate deceleration timing-even by decades.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.