Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24376707›Full record

ArticlePloS one2013

Climate variability, weather and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand: time series analysis.

Aparna Lal, Takayoshi Ikeda, Nigel French, Michael G Baker, Simon Hales

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed
2.8field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed, 78 citations in OpenAlex.

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  14. Edaphoclimatic seasonal trends and variations of theInfectious Disease Modelling · 2021
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  19. Interrelationships between Multiple Climatic Factors and Incidence of Foodborne Diseases.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Aparna LalDepartment of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
Takayoshi IkedaDean's Department, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
Nigel FrenchMolecular Epidemiology and Public Health laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Michael G BakerDepartment of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
Simon HalesDepartment of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
University of Otago · NZMassey University · NZ

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEvaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases.

objectivesTo examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand.

methodsAssociations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis) were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models.

resultsNo climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β =  0.130, SE =  0.060, p <0.01) and inversely related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) two months previously (β =  -0.008, SE =  0.004, p <0.05). By contrast, salmonellosis was positively associated with temperature (β  = 0.110, SE = 0.020, p<0.001) of the current month and SOI of the current (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.050) and previous month (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.05). Forecasting accuracy of the multivariate models for cryptosporidiosis and salmonellosis were significantly higher.

conclusionsAlthough spatial heterogeneity in the observed patterns could not be assessed, these results suggest that temporally lagged relationships between climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeWeatherCommunicable DiseasesHumansIncidenceModels, StatisticalNew ZealandRainSeasonsTemperatureTime Factors

Identifiers

PMID24376707
PMCPMC3871872
OpenAlexW2069968968

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.