Trial reportPloS one2013
Validation and calibration of a computer simulation model of pediatric HIV infection.
Trial report in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care versus centralised, laboratory-based nucleic acid testing for diagnosis of HIV in infants: a systematic review of modelling studies.The lancet. HIV · 2023Pooled it
- Incorporating the HIV Infant Tracking System into standard-of-care early infant diagnosis of HIV services in Kenya: a cost-effectiveness analysis of the HITSystem randomised trial.The Lancet. Global health · 2023Trial
- A Scoping Review of the Literature on Child and/or Adolescent Health Microsimulation Models.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Review
- Long-Acting Antiretroviral Therapy for Breastfeeding Women With HIV Experiencing Barriers to Adherence in Zimbabwe: Modeling Clinical Impact and Cost-effectiveness.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Optimizing the location of point-of-care infant HIV testing devices in Zimbabwe to maximize impact and value: A modeling analysis.PloS one · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of broadly neutralizing antibodies for HIV prophylaxis for infants born in settings with high HIV burdens.PloS one · 2025Article
- Cost-effectiveness of viral load testing for transitioning antiretroviral therapy-experienced children to dolutegravir in South Africa: a modelling analysis.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness of broadly neutralizing antibodies for infant HIV prophylaxis in settings with high HIV burdens: a simulation modeling study.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Cost-effectiveness of broadly neutralizing antibody prophylaxis for HIV-exposed infants in sub-Saharan African settings.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
- Prevalence of undiagnosed HIV among children in South Africa, Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe: a model-based analysis to inform paediatric HIV screening programmes.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Article
- Costs and cost-effectiveness of HIV early infant diagnosis in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- Development and validation of the age-associated dementia policy (AgeD-Pol) computer simulation model in the USA and Europe.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Do not forget the children: a model-based analysis on the potential impact of COVID-19-associated interruptions in paediatric HIV prevention and care.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Article
- Cost-effectiveness of Routine Provider-Initiated Testing and Counseling for Children With Undiagnosed HIV in South Africa.Open forum infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Addressing Pediatric HIV Pretreatment Drug Resistance and Virologic Failure in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Diagnostic-Based Strategies in Children ≥3 Years Old.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Optimizing infant HIV diagnosis with additional screening at immunization clinics in three sub-Saharan African settings: a cost-effectiveness analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- Strengthening Existing Laboratory-Based Systems vs. Investing in Point-of-Care Assays for Early Infant Diagnosis of HIV: A Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2020Article
- Novel microsimulation model of tobacco use behaviours and outcomes: calibration and validation in a US population.BMJ open · 2020Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Preemptive Switching to Efavirenz-Based Antiretroviral Therapy for Children With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.Open forum infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Risks and Benefits of Dolutegravir- and Efavirenz-Based Strategies for South African Women With HIV of Child-Bearing Potential: A Modeling Study.Annals of internal medicine · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundComputer simulation models can project long-term patient outcomes and inform health policy. We internally validated and then calibrated a model of HIV disease in children before initiation of antiretroviral therapy to provide a framework against which to compare the impact of pediatric HIV treatment strategies.
methodsWe developed a patient-level (Monte Carlo) model of HIV progression among untreated children <5 years of age, using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model framework: the CEPAC-Pediatric model. We populated the model with data on opportunistic infection and mortality risks from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA), with mean CD4% at birth (42%) and mean CD4% decline (1.4%/month) from the Women and Infants' Transmission Study (WITS). We internally validated the model by varying WITS-derived CD4% data, comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves from IeDEA, and identifying best-fitting parameter sets as those with a root-mean square error (RMSE) <0.01. We then calibrated the model to other African settings by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. Model-generated survival curves for children aged 0-60 months were compared, again using RMSE, to UNAIDS data from >1,300 untreated, HIV-infected African children.
resultsIn internal validation analyses, model-generated survival curves fit IeDEA data well; modeled and observed survival at 16 months of age were 91.2% and 91.1%, respectively. RMSE varied widely with variations in CD4% parameters; the best fitting parameter set (RMSE = 0.00423) resulted when CD4% was 45% at birth and declined by 6%/month (ages 0-3 months) and 0.3%/month (ages >3 months). In calibration analyses, increases in IeDEA-derived mortality risks were necessary to fit UNAIDS survival data.
conclusionsThe CEPAC-Pediatric model performed well in internal validation analyses. Increases in modeled mortality risks required to match UNAIDS data highlight the importance of pre-enrollment mortality in many pediatric cohort studies.
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