ArticlePloS one2013
Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.
Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review and meta-analysis of dengue risk with temperature change.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2014Pooled it
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- Application of Big Data Technology for COVID-19 Prevention and Control in China: Lessons and Recommendations.Journal of medical Internet research · 2020Article
- A potential global surveillance tool for effective, low-cost sampling of invasive Aedes mosquito eggs from tyres using adhesive tape.Parasites & vectors · 2020Article
- El Niño Southern Oscillation, overseas arrivals and imported chikungunya cases in Australia: A time series analysis.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- The association between dengue incidences and provincial-level weather variables in Thailand from 2001 to 2014.PloS one · 2019Article
- Spatial and temporal analysis of dengue infections in Queensland, Australia: Recent trend and perspectives.PloS one · 2019Article
- Predicting Infectious Disease Using Deep Learning and Big Data.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka.Parasites & vectors · 2018Article
- Dynamic spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous dengue fever at street-level in Guangzhou city, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- Determining environmental and anthropogenic factors which explain the global distribution ofBMJ global health · 2018Article
- Risk assessment of dengue fever in Zhongshan, China: a time-series regression tree analysis.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Article
- Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction.BMC bioinformatics · 2016Article
- Review of ten-years presence of Aedes albopictus in Spain 2004-2014: known distribution and public health concerns.Parasites & vectors · 2015Review
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes.Scientific reports · 2015Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS: Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.28), monthly minimum temperature ((o)C) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.
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