ArticleParasites & vectors2013
Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 71 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
71 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Risk factors associated with sustained circulation of six zoonotic arboviruses: a systematic review for selection of surveillance sites in non-endemic areas.Parasites & vectors · 2019Pooled it
- Exploring prediction of tick and tick-borne encephalitis cases in Sweden using citizen science data.iScience · 2026Article
- Building resilient food safety systems through a One Health approach to prepare for the next pandemic.NPJ science of food · 2026Review
- Predicting the spatio-temporal risk of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Europe by combining hazard and exposure drivers.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Tick-small mammal relationships in urban and forest environments in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan: First confirmation of the establishment of southern tick species in northern Japan.International journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife · 2026Article
- Scientist's Opinion on Climate Change and Hard Ticks (Ixodidae).Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Mammal community composition and season determine the abundance of questing ticks in mountainous forests of central Japan.International journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife · 2025Article
- Northward expansion of the thermal limit for the tick Ixodes ricinus over the past 40 years.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Rapid Northward Expansion of the Blacklegged Tick, Ixodes scapularis, in Response to Climate Change.Global change biology · 2025Article
- First Molecular Detection ofPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Neuropsychiatric Manifestations of Lyme Disease: A Literature Review of Psychiatric and Cognitive Impacts.Acta medica Lituanic · 2025Article
- Tick-borne viruses: Epidemiology, pathogenesis, and animal models.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Review
- Development, Optimization, and Validation of a Quantitative PCR Assay forPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Camel tick species distribution in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates using MaxEnt modelling.Parasitology · 2024Article
- Predicting the distribution ofParasitology · 2024Article
- The Role of Environmental Factors in Lyme Disease Transmission in the European Union: A Systematic Review.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Review
- Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches.Parasites & vectors · 2023Review
- Ticks and Chlamydia-Related Bacteria in Swiss Zoological Gardens Compared to in Contiguous and Distant Control Areas.Microorganisms · 2023Article
- Universal Tick Vaccines: Candidates and Remaining Challenges.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Review
- Infectious Disease Sensitivity to Climate and Other Driver-Pressure Changes: Research Effort and Gaps for Lyme Disease and Cryptosporidiosis.GeoHealth · 2023Review
11 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundGlobal climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe.
methodsSpecies Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of "maximum entropy", as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used.
resultsIn both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species.
conclusionsOur models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will implement and refine present data toward a better understanding of the risk represented by I. ricinus to human health.
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