Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24307741›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2014

The survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

Michael D April, Robin Wood, Bethany K Berkowitz, A David Paltiel, Xavier Anglaret, Elena Losina, Kenneth A Freedberg, Rochelle P Walensky

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  16. The History of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Africa.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2016
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Michael D AprilDepartment of Emergency Medicine, San Antonio Uniformed Services Health Education Consortium, Texas.
Robin Wood
Bethany K Berkowitz
A David Paltiel
Xavier Anglaret
Elena Losina
Kenneth A Freedberg
Rochelle P Walensky

Funding

The impact of HIV viral diversity and cellular immunity on HIV pathogenesisP30AI060354 · NIAID · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (MEDICAL SCHOOL) · PI ROBERT A. PARKER · 2004 to 2026
$94.4M
Using Coincidence Analysis to Investigate Factors Affecting PrEP Initiation and Continuation in Southern ending the Epidemic CountiesP30MH062294 · NIMH · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John Edward Pachankis · 2001 to 2026
$48.5M
Optimizing HIV Care in Less Developed CountriesR01AI058736 · NIAID · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI Kenneth Alan Freedberg, Emily Parker Hyle · 2004 to 2026
$21.5M
Novel Methods to Inform HIV/TB Clinical Trial DevelopmentR01AI093269 · NIAID · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI REDDY, KRISHNA P · 2011 to 2024
$6.8M
NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI060354NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI058736NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI093269NIMH NIH HHS P30 MH062294
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWe sought to quantify the survival benefits attributable to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa since 2004.

methodsWe used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-International model (CEPAC) to simulate 8 cohorts of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients initiating ART each year during 2004-2011. Model inputs included cohort-specific mean CD4(+) T-cell count at ART initiation (112-178 cells/µL), 24-week ART suppressive efficacy (78%), second-line ART availability (2.4% of ART recipients), and cohort-specific 36-month retention rate (55%-71%). CEPAC simulated survival twice for each cohort, once with and once without ART. The sum of the products of per capita survival differences and the total numbers of persons initiating ART for each cohort yielded the total survival benefits.

resultsLifetime per capita survival benefits ranged from 9.3 to 10.2 life-years across the 8 cohorts. Total estimated population lifetime survival benefit for all persons starting ART during 2004-2011 was 21.7 million life-years, of which 2.8 million life-years (12.7%) had been realized by December 2012. By 2030, benefits reached 17.9 million life-years under current policies, 21.7 million life-years with universal second-line ART, 23.3 million life-years with increased linkage to care of eligible untreated patients, and 28.0 million life-years with both linkage to care and universal second-line ART.

conclusionsWe found dramatic past and potential future survival benefits attributable to ART, justifying international support of ART rollout in South Africa.

Indexed as

AdultAnalysis of VarianceAnti-HIV AgentsAntiretroviral Therapy, Highly ActiveCD4 Lymphocyte CountComputer SimulationCost-Benefit AnalysisFemaleHIV InfectionsHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalSouth AfricaViral LoadAnti-HIV Agentshighly active antiretroviral therapyHIVSouth Africa

Identifiers

PMID24307741
PMCPMC3903379

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.