ArticlePloS one2013
Operationalising factors that explain the emergence of infectious diseases: a case study of the human campylobacteriosis epidemic.
Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of source attribution of human campylobacteriosis using multilocus sequence typing.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Pooled it
- Countries with delayed COVID-19 introduction - characteristics, drivers, gaps, and opportunities.Globalization and health · 2021Article
- Article
- Determinants of sporadicClinical epidemiology · 2018Article
- Acid-suppression medications and bacterial gastroenteritis: a population-based cohort study.British journal of clinical pharmacology · 2017Article
- Control selection methods in recent case-control studies conducted as part of infectious disease outbreaks.European journal of epidemiology · 2015Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
A framework of general factors for infectious disease emergence was made operational for Campylobacter utilising explanatory variables including time series and risk factor data. These variables were generated using a combination of empirical epidemiology, case-case and case-control studies, time series analysis, and microbial sub-typing (source attribution, diversity, genetic distance) to unravel the changing/emerging aetiology of human campylobacteriosis. The study focused on Scotland between 1990-2012 where there was a 75% increase in reported cases that included >300% increase in the elderly and 50% decrease in young children. During this period there were three phases 1990-2000 a 75% rise and a 20% fall to 2006, followed by a 19% resurgence. The rise coincided with expansions in the poultry industry, consumption of chicken, and a shift from rural to urban cases. The post-2000 fall occurred across all groups apart from the elderly and coincided with a drop of the prevalence of Campylobacter in chicken and a higher proportion of rural cases. The increase in the elderly was associated with uptake of proton pump inhibitors. During the resurgence the increase was predominantly in adults and the elderly, again there was increasing use of PPIs and high prevalences in chicken and ruminants. Cases associated with foreign travel during the study also increased from 9% to a peak of 16% in 2006 before falling to an estimated 10% in 2011, predominantly in adults and older children. During all three periods source attribution, genetic distance, and diversity measurements placed human isolates most similar to those in chickens. A combination of emergence factors generic for infectious diseases were responsible for the Campylobacter epidemic. It was possible to use these to obtain a putative explanation for the changes in human disease and the potential to make an informed view of how incidence rates may change in the future.
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