ArticleDemography2014
Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States.
Article in Demography, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
42 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2019Pooled it
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- Pervasive stagnation: flat and increasing cardiovascular disease mortality rates after 2010 across US states and counties.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Increasing Educational Inequality in Biological Aging Among U.S. Adults Aged 50-79 From 1988-1994 to 2015-2018.Demography · 2025Article
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- An Assessment of Health Behaviours in Primary Care Patients: A Cross-Sectional Study.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Promotion of healthy adipose tissue remodeling ameliorates muscle inflammation in a mouse model of sarcopenic obesity.Frontiers in nutrition · 2023Article
- The mortality risk of being overweight in the twentieth century: Evidence from two cohorts of New Zealand men.Explorations in economic history · 2022Article
- Decomposing County-Level Working-Age Mortality Trends in the United States Between 1999-2001 and 2015-2017.Spatial demography · 2022Article
- Culturally adapting internet- and mobile-based health promotion interventions might not be worth the effort: a systematic review and meta-analysis.NPJ digital medicine · 2022Review
- Association of Bone Mineral Density with Lean Mass, Fat Mass, and Physical Activity in Young Overweight and Obese Women.International journal of exercise science · 2022Article
- Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol.eLife · 2021Article
- Social Inequality and the Future of U.S. Life Expectancy.Annual review of sociology · 2021Article
- A demographic scaling model for estimating the total number of COVID-19 infections.International journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- Socioeconomic disparities in U.S. mortality: The role of smoking and alcohol/drug abuse.SSM - population health · 2020Article
- Educational differences in mortality associated with central obesity: Decomposing the contribution of risk and prevalence.Social science research · 2020Article
- Similarities and Differences Between Sexes and Countries in the Mortality Imprint of the Smoking Epidemic in 34 Low-Mortality Countries, 1950-2014.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2020Article
- Article
- Signs of the End of the Paradox? Cohort Shifts in Smoking and Obesity and the Hispanic Life Expectancy Advantage.Sociological science · 2020Article
- Health Benefits of Physical Activity: A Strengths-Based Approach.Journal of clinical medicine · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Estimates of the effects of smoking changes are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that changes in both smoking and obesity are expected to have large effects on U.S. mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.83 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.09 years expected by 2040.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.