ArticlePLoS computational biology2013
Natural, persistent oscillations in a spatial multi-strain disease system with application to dengue.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review.Physics of life reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2015Trial
- The pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic dengue fever patterns in southeastern coastal China in 2019 and 2024: molecular evolution and strain replacement.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Article
- The effectiveness of putative wearable repellent technologies to protect against mosquito biting and Aedes-borne diseases, and their economic impact.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- The evolutionary cost of homophily: Social stratification facilitates stable variant coexistence and increased rates of evolution in host-associated pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- The evolutionary cost of homophily: social stratification facilitates stable variant coexistence and increased rates of evolution in host-associated pathogens.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Molecular and Entomological Characterization of 2023 Dengue Outbreak in Dhading District, Central Nepal.Viruses · 2024Article
- Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity.Science advances · 2024Article
- Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Modeling the drivers of oscillations in COVID-19 data on college campuses.Annals of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Global transmission suitability maps for dengue virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti from 1981 to 2019.Scientific data · 2023Article
- Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of multi-strain RNA viruses.Nature ecology & evolution · 2022Review
- Asymmetric host movement reshapes local disease dynamics in metapopulations.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Short-term and long-term epidemiological impacts of sustained vector control in various dengue endemic settings: A modelling study.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Antigenic evolution of dengue viruses over 20 years.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2021Article
- Dengue and Zika virus infections in children elicit cross-reactive protective and enhancing antibodies that persist long term.Science translational medicine · 2021Article
- Pneumococcal Competition Modulates Antibiotic Resistance in the Pre-Vaccination Era: A Modelling Study.Vaccines · 2021Article
- Incorporating human mobility data improves forecasts of Dengue fever in Thailand.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
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2 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Many infectious diseases are not maintained in a state of equilibrium but exhibit significant fluctuations in prevalence over time. For pathogens that consist of multiple antigenic types or strains, such as influenza, malaria or dengue, these fluctuations often take on the form of regular or irregular epidemic outbreaks in addition to oscillatory prevalence levels of the constituent strains. To explain the observed temporal dynamics and structuring in pathogen populations, epidemiological multi-strain models have commonly evoked strong immune interactions between strains as the predominant driver. Here, with specific reference to dengue, we show how spatially explicit, multi-strain systems can exhibit all of the described epidemiological dynamics even in the absence of immune competition. Instead, amplification of natural stochastic differences in disease transmission, can give rise to persistent oscillations comprising semi-regular epidemic outbreaks and sequential dominance of dengue's four serotypes. Not only can this mechanism explain observed differences in serotype and disease distributions between neighbouring geographical areas, it also has important implications for inferring the nature and epidemiological consequences of immune mediated competition in multi-strain pathogen systems.
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