ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2013
Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 108 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
108 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Modeling and empirical evidence of the impact of implementation of sugar sweetened-beverages tax to reduce non-communicable diseases prevalence: a systematic review.Frontiers in nutrition · 2024Pooled it
- Effect of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation on sugars intake and dental caries: an umbrella review of a global perspective.BMC public health · 2023Pooled it
- Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review.European journal of clinical nutrition · 2023Pooled it
- Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages as a policy to reduce overweight and obesity in countries of different income classifications: a systematic review.Public health nutrition · 2021Pooled it
- Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models.BMC public health · 2021Pooled it
- Association of sugar sweetened beverages consumption with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European journal of nutrition · 2019Pooled it
- Policy lessons from health taxes: a systematic review of empirical studies.BMC public health · 2017Pooled it
- The impact of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages according to socio-economic position: a systematic review of the evidence.Public health nutrition · 2016Pooled it
- Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice and incidence of type 2 diabetes: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimation of population attributable fraction.British journal of sports medicine · 2016Pooled it
- Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice and incidence of type 2 diabetes: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimation of population attributable fraction.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2015Pooled it
- The Effect of Price Changes and Teaspoon Labelling on Intention to Purchase Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: A Discrete Choice Experiment.Applied health economics and health policy · 2022Trial
- Diabetes Mellitus as an Integrated Microbiome, Immune, and Metabolic Disorder with Clinical Implications for Multisystem Complications and Public Health.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- Comprehensive Analysis of Modifiable Global Risk Factors for Low Back Pain.Journal of pain research · 2026Article
- Impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on dental caries, periodontitis and edentulism in Australia: a modelling study.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Evaluating sugar-sweetened beverage tax effects: online price and sales data from grocers in Canada.Health promotion international · 2025Article
- Changes in household purchasing of soft drinks following the UK soft drinks industry levy by household income and composition: controlled interrupted time series analysis, March 2014 to November 2019.BMJ nutrition, prevention & health · 2025Article
- The equitable impact of sugary drink taxation structures on sugary drink consumption among Canadians: a modelling study using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition.Public health nutrition · 2024Article
- Review
- Article
- The role of simulation modelling in public health policy evaluation.The Lancet. Public health · 2024Article
48 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK.
designEconometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.
settingUnited Kingdom. POPULATION: Adults aged 16 and over.
interventionA 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks.
main outcome measuresThe primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥ 25) and obese (≥ 30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated.
resultsA 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180,000 (110,000 to 247,000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285,000 (201,000 to 364,000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%).
conclusionsA 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180,000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.
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