ArticleNicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco2014
The predictive value of smoking expectancy and the heritability of its accuracy.
Article in Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- Indexing Quit-Smoking Interest among Norwegian Smokers 2019-2021.Journal of smoking cessation · 2023Article
- Phenome-Wide Association Study for Alcohol and Nicotine Risk Alleles in 26394 Women.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2016Article
- Lack of an association between SNPs within the cholinergic receptor genes and smoking behavior in a Czech post-MONICA study.Genetics and molecular biology · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionAmong smokers, former smokers, and never-smokers, this study aimed to (a) determine the predictive value of smoking expectancy on future smoking status, and (b) test the relative contribution of genes and environment to a person's ability to accurately predict future smoking status. For smokers, smoking expectancy reflects the intention to continue smoking; for former smokers, it reflects the intention to take up smoking again; and for never-smokers, it reflects the intention to initiate smoking.
methodsA longitudinal design was employed in which participants of the Netherlands Twin Register completed 2 consecutive surveys 2 years apart between 1993 and 2011 (3,591 adolescents aged 14-18 years), or between 1993 and 2004 (11,568 adults, aged 18+ years). Smoking expectancy was measured by asking, "Do you think you'll smoke in a year's time?", with answer categories ranging from "certainly not" to "absolutely yes" on a 5-point scale. To determine the predictive value of smoking expectancy, analyses were performed in smokers, former smokers, and never-smokers separately. Data of 2,987 adolescents and 4,911 adult twins were analyzed to estimate heritability. A dichotomous variable reflected the ability to predict future smoking status (correct/incorrect).
resultsSmoking expectancy significantly predicted future smoking status among former smokers and never-smokers. The ability to accurately predict future smoking status was explained by additive genetic factors for 59% of adolescents and 27% of adults, with the remainder being explained by unique environmental factors.
conclusionsA single question on smoking expectancy helps predict future smoking status. Variation in how well subjects predict their future smoking behavior is influenced by genetic factors, especially during adolescence.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.