ArticleTheoretical population biology2013
Economic epidemiology of avian influenza on smallholder poultry farms.
Article in Theoretical population biology, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 50 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Multi-model large-scale AI framework for avian influenza surveillance and preparedness: Harnessing large language models to enhance risk communication, real-time decision support, and public health response strategies.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- The role of artificial intelligence in detecting avian influenza virus outbreaks: A review.Open veterinary journal · 2025Review
- Evaluating machine learning approaches for host prediction using H3 influenza genomic data.PloS one · 2025Article
- Comparative evolution of influenza A virus H1 and H3 head and stalk domains across host species.mBio · 2024Article
- Article
- Investigating the Genetic Diversity of H5 Avian Influenza Viruses in the United Kingdom from 2020-2022.Microbiology spectrum · 2023Article
- Accelerating Bayesian inference of dependency between mixed-type biological traits.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Elasticity and substitutability of food demand and emerging disease risk on livestock farms.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Organoids containing neural-like cells derived from chicken iPSCs respond to poly:IC through the RLR family.PloS one · 2023Article
- Mathematical epidemiology for a later age.Theoretical population biology · 2022Article
- Temporal Dynamics of Influenza A(H5N1) Subtype before and after the Emergence of H5N8.Viruses · 2021Article
- Epidemiology, Genetic Characterization, and Pathogenesis of Avian Influenza H5N8 Viruses Circulating in Northern and Southern Parts of Egypt, 2017-2019.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2021Article
- Poultry farmer response to disease outbreaks in smallholder farming systems in southern Vietnam.eLife · 2020Article
- A Review of Pathogen Transmission at the Backyard Chicken-Wild Bird Interface.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2020Review
- Poultry population dynamics and mortality risks in smallholder farms of the Mekong river delta region.BMC veterinary research · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is often controlled through culling of poultry. Compensating farmers for culled chickens or ducks facilitates effective culling and control of HPAI. However, ensuing price shifts can create incentives that alter the disease dynamics of HPAI. Farmers control certain aspects of the dynamics by setting a farm size, implementing infection control measures, and determining the age at which poultry are sent to market. Their decisions can be influenced by the market price of poultry which can, in turn, be set by policy makers during an HPAI outbreak. Here, we integrate these economic considerations into an epidemiological model in which epidemiological parameters are determined by an outside agent (the farmer) to maximize profit from poultry sales. Our model exhibits a diversity of behaviors which are sensitive to (i) the ability to identify infected poultry, (ii) the average price of infected poultry, (iii) the basic reproductive number of avian influenza, (iv) the effect of culling on the market price of poultry, (v) the effect of market price on farm size, and (vi) the effect of poultry density on disease transmission. We find that under certain market and epidemiological conditions, culling can increase farm size and the total number of HPAI infections. Our model helps to inform the optimization of public health outcomes that best weigh the balance between public health risk and beneficial economic outcomes for farmers.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.