Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24155790›Full record

ArticleApplied clinical informatics2013

Comparing predictions made by a prediction model, clinical score, and physicians: pediatric asthma exacerbations in the emergency department.

K J Farion, S Wilk, W Michalowski, D O'Sullivan, J Sayyad-Shirabad

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Applied clinical informatics, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Predicting paediatric asthma exacerbations with machine learning: a systematic review with meta-analysis.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2024
    Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Article
  6. Multimodal EHR-Based Prediction of Pediatric Asthma Exacerbations.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2026
    Article
  7. AI model for predicting asthma prognosis in children.The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. Global · 2025
    Article
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  9. Review
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  13. Observational
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  17. Applications of machine learning in acute care research.Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians open · 2020
    Article
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  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

K J Farion
S Wilk
W Michalowski
D O'Sullivan
J Sayyad-Shirabad

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAsthma exacerbations are one of the most common medical reasons for children to be brought to the hospital emergency department (ED). Various prediction models have been proposed to support diagnosis of exacerbations and evaluation of their severity.

objectivesFirst, to evaluate prediction models constructed from data using machine learning techniques and to select the best performing model. Second, to compare predictions from the selected model with predictions from the Pediatric Respiratory Assessment Measure (PRAM) score, and predictions made by ED physicians.

designA two-phase study conducted in the ED of an academic pediatric hospital. In phase 1 data collected prospectively using paper forms was used to construct and evaluate five prediction models, and the best performing model was selected. In phase 2 data collected prospectively using a mobile system was used to compare the predictions of the selected prediction model with those from PRAM and ED physicians. MEASUREMENTS: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and accuracy in phase 1; accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values in phase 2.

resultsIn phase 1 prediction models were derived from a data set of 240 patients and evaluated using 10-fold cross validation. A naive Bayes (NB) model demonstrated the best performance and it was selected for phase 2. Evaluation in phase 2 was conducted on data from 82 patients. Predictions made by the NB model were less accurate than the PRAM score and physicians (accuracy of 70.7%, 73.2% and 78.0% respectively), however, according to McNemar's test it is not possible to conclude that the differences between predictions are statistically significant.

conclusionBoth the PRAM score and the NB model were less accurate than physicians. The NB model can handle incomplete patient data and as such may complement the PRAM score. However, it requires further research to improve its accuracy.

Indexed as

Decision Support Systems, ClinicalEmergency Service, HospitalPhysiciansArtificial IntelligenceAsthmaBayes TheoremChildHumansAsthmadecision support techniquesemergency medical servicespediatrics

Identifiers

PMID24155790
PMCPMC3799208

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.