ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2013
Palm oil taxes and cardiovascular disease mortality in India: economic-epidemiologic model.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2025Article
- Ahmedabad declaration: A framework to combat growing epidemic of young-onset type 2 diabetes in Asia.Diabetes & metabolic syndrome · 2025Review
- Estimating the impact of nutrition and physical activity policies with quasi-experimental methods and simulation modelling: an integrative review of methods, challenges and synergies.European journal of public health · 2022Review
- Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability.Health research policy and systems · 2021Article
- Analysing the policy space for the promotion of healthy, sustainable edible oil consumption in India.Public health nutrition · 2019Article
- Attributable Burden and Expenditure of Cardiovascular Diseases and Associated Risk Factors in Mexico and other Selected Mega-Countries.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Review
- Evidence on the magnitude of the economic, health and population effects of palm cooking oil consumption: an integrated modelling approach with Thailand as a case study.Population health metrics · 2019Article
- Impact of the consumption tax rate increase on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan: an interrupted time series analysis.BMJ open · 2019Article
- Palm oil and dietary change: Application of an integrated macroeconomic, environmental, demographic, and health modelling framework for Thailand.Food policy · 2019Article
- Nutrition and diabetes in South Asia.European journal of clinical nutrition · 2018Review
- The development and implementation of a new import duty on palm oil to reduce non-communicable disease in Fiji.Globalization and health · 2018Article
- Article
- Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact.Health research policy and systems · 2017Article
- Intake of individual saturated fatty acids and risk of coronary heart disease in US men and women: two prospective longitudinal cohort studies.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2016Article
- Health and Economic Implications of National Treatment Coverage for Cardiovascular Disease in India: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes · 2015Article
- Tackling China's noncommunicable diseases: shared origins, costly consequences and the need for action.Chinese medical journal · 2015Article
- Macroeconomic implications of population ageing and selected policy responses.Lancet (London, England) · 2015Review
- The transitional dynamics of caloric ecosystems: changes in the food supply around the world.Critical public health · 2015Article
- Article
- Quantifying demographic and socioeconomic transitions for computational epidemiology: an open-source modeling approach applied to India.Population health metrics · 2015Article
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6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo examine the potential effect of a tax on palm oil on hyperlipidemia and on mortality due to cardiovascular disease in India.
designEconomic-epidemiologic model. MODELING
methodsA microsimulation model of mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke among Indian populations was constructed, incorporating nationally representative data on systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and cardiovascular event history, and stratified by age, sex, and urban/rural residence. Household expenditure data were used to estimate the change in consumption of palm oil following changes in oil price and the potential substitution of alternative oils that might occur after imposition of a tax. A 20% excise tax on palm oil purchases was simulated over the period 2014-23.
main outcome measuresThe model was used to project future mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke, as well as the potential effect of a tax on food insecurity, accounting for the effect of increased food prices.
resultsA 20% tax on palm oil purchases would be expected to avert approximately 363,000 (95% confidence interval 247,000 to 479,000) deaths from myocardial infarctions and strokes over the period 2014-23 in India (1.3% reduction in cardiovascular deaths) if people do not substitute other oils for reduced palm oil consumption. Given estimates of substitution of palm oil with other oils following a 20% price increase for palm oil, the beneficial effects of increased polyunsaturated fat consumption would be expected to enhance the projected reduction in deaths to as much as 421,000 (256,000 to 586,000). The tax would be expected to benefit men more than women and urban populations more than rural populations, given differential consumption and cardiovascular risk. In a scenario incorporating the effect of taxation on overall food expenditures, the tax may increase food insecurity by <1%, resulting in 16,000 (95% confidence interval 12,000 to 22,000) deaths.
conclusionsCurtailing palm oil intake through taxation may modestly reduce hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular mortality, but with potential distributional consequences differentially benefiting male and urban populations, as well as affecting food security.
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