ArticleBMJ open2013
Exploring the relationship between baseline physical activity levels and mortality reduction associated with increases in physical activity: a modelling study.
Article in BMJ open, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
- A critical evaluation of systematic reviews assessing the effect of chronic physical activity on academic achievement, cognition and the brain in children and adolescents: a systematic review.The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity · 2020Pooled it
- Pre-Intervention Predictors of Meeting a 12-Month Walking Goal in Aging Latino/a Adults: A Signal Detection Analysis Approach.Journal of behavioral medicine · 2025Trial
- Get Back, a person-centered digital program to promote physical activity among patients undergoing spinal stenosis surgery: a randomized feasibility study.Pilot and feasibility studies · 2026Article
- Personalized Lifestyle Interventions for Prevention and Treatment of Obesity-Related Cancers: A Call to Action.Cancers · 2025Article
- Benefits and risks of walking football for healthy ageing: a narrative review.BMJ open sport & exercise medicine · 2025Review
- Get Back, a person-centred digital programme targeting physical activity for patients undergoing spinal stenosis surgery-a study protocol of a randomized feasibility study.Pilot and feasibility studies · 2024Article
- Effects of an Eight-Week Concurrent Training Program with Different Effort Character over Physical Fitness, Health-Related Quality of Life, and Lipid Profile among Hospital Workers: Preliminary Results.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Engagement with and delivery of the 'parkrun practice initiative' in general practice: a mixed methods study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2020Article
- Increasing exercise frequency is associated with health and quality-of-life benefits for older adults.Quality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation · 2019Article
- Neighborhood walkability and 12-year changes in cardio-metabolic risk: the mediating role of physical activity.The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity · 2019Article
- Influence of Baseline Physical Activity Level on Exercise Training Response and Clinical Outcomes in Heart Failure: The HF-ACTION Trial.JACC. Heart failure · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIncreasing physical activity (PA) levels among the general adult population of developed nations is important for reducing premature mortality and the burdens of preventable illness. Assessing how effective PA interventions are as health interventions often involves categorising participants as either 'active' or 'sedentary' after the interventions. A model was developed showing that doing this could significantly misestimate the health effect of PA interventions.
methodsA life table model was constructed combining evidence on baseline PA levels with evidence indicating the non-linear relationship between PA levels and all-cause mortality risks. PA intervention scenarios were modelled which had the same mean increase in PA but different levels of take-up by people who were more active or more sedentary to begin with.
resultsThe model simulations indicated that, compared with a scenario where already-active people did most of the additional PA, a scenario where the least active did the most additional PA was around a third more effective in preventing deaths between the ages of 50 and 60 years. The relationship between distribution of PA take-up and health effect was explored systematically and appeared non-linear.
conclusionsAs the health gains of a given PA increase are greatest among people who are most sedentary, smaller increases in PA in the least active may have the same health benefits as much larger PA increases in the most active. To help such health effects to be assessed, PA studies should report changes in the distribution of PA level between the start and end of the study.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.