ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2013
A mathematical model of serotype replacement in pneumococcal carriage following vaccination.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 46 citations in OpenAlex.
- Models to predict the public health impact of vaccine resistance: A systematic review.Vaccine · 2019Pooled it
- A systematic review of the burden of vaccine preventable pneumococcal disease in UK adults.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2016Pooled it
- Article
- Quantifying the effects of antibiotic resistance and within-host competition on strain fitness in Streptococcus pneumoniae.PLoS biology · 2025Article
- Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2025Article
- A dynamic transmission model for assessing the impact of pneumococcal vaccination in the United States.PloS one · 2025Article
- Article
- Convergent impact of vaccination and antibiotic pressures on pneumococcal populations.Cell chemical biology · 2024Review
- [The new 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine for the prevention ofJournal of preventive medicine and hygiene · 2023Article
- The incremental burden of invasive pneumococcal disease associated with a decline in childhood vaccination using a dynamic transmission model in Japan: A secondary impact of COVID-19.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Article
- Pneumococcal Competition Modulates Antibiotic Resistance in the Pre-Vaccination Era: A Modelling Study.Vaccines · 2021Article
- Predicting N-Strain Coexistence from Co-colonization Interactions: Epidemiology Meets Ecology and the Replicator Equation.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2020Article
- Determinants of high residual post-PCV13 pneumococcal vaccine-type carriage in Blantyre, Malawi: a modelling study.BMC medicine · 2019Article
- Persistence of Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Vaccine Serotypes and Increase of Nonvaccine Serotypes Among Vaccinated Infants and Their Mothers 5 Years After Introduction of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine 13 in The Gambia.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2019Article
- Dynamic transmission modelling to address infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule modifications in the UK.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Article
- HIV population-level adaptation can rapidly diminish the impact of a partially effective vaccine.Vaccine · 2018Article
- Exploring the role of competition induced by non-vaccine serotypes for herd protection following pneumococcal vaccination.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2017Article
- Article
- Article
- Vaccination Drives Changes in Metabolic and Virulence Profiles of Streptococcus pneumoniae.PLoS pathogens · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
A number of childhood vaccination programmes have recently introduced vaccination against Streptococcus pneumoniae, the pneumococcus, a major cause of pneumonia and meningitis. The pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) that are currently in use only protect against some serotypes of the bacterium, and there is now strong evidence that those serotypes not included in the vaccine increase in prevalence among most vaccinated populations. We present a mathematical model for the dynamics of nasopharyngeal carriage of S. pneumoniae that allows for carriage with multiple serotypes. The model is used to predict the prevalence of vaccine type (VT) and non-VT (NVT) serotypes following the introduction of PCV. Parameter estimates for the model are obtained by maximum likelihood using pre-vaccination data from The Gambia. The model predicts that low (1, 6A and 9V) and medium (4, 5, 7F, 14, 18C, 19A and 19F) prevalence serotypes can be eliminated through vaccination, but that the overall prevalence of carriage will be reduced only slightly because of an increase in the prevalence of NVT serotypes. Serotype replacement will be sequential, with high and medium prevalence NVT serotypes dominating initially, followed by an increase of serotypes of low prevalence. We examine the impact of a hypothetical vaccine that provides partial protection against all serotypes, and find that this reduces overall carriage, but is unable to eliminate low or medium prevalence serotypes.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.