ArticleBMJ open2013
Prevalence and incidence rates of autism in the UK: time trend from 2004-2010 in children aged 8 years.
Article in BMJ open, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 54 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
54 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The global prevalence of autism spectrum disorder: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2022Pooled it
- Interventions based on early intensive applied behaviour analysis for autistic children: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2020Pooled it
- The Association between Autism Spectrum Disorder and Pre- and Postnatal Antibiotic Exposure in Childhood-A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Pooled it
- Probiotic Therapy for Treating Behavioral and Gastrointestinal Symptoms in Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Systematic Review of Clinical Trials.Current medical science · 2019Pooled it
- Parents' experiences in accessing services for their autistic children in the United Kingdom: A meta-synthesis.The British journal of clinical psychology · 2026Review
- Predicting the impact of stuttering in the school years.Frontiers in psychology · 2026Article
- Prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability due to Autism Spectrum Disorder in Brazil, 1990-2023: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- The global prevalence of autism spectrum disorder in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2025Article
- Article
- Utility of the Language Use Inventory in Young Children at Elevated Likelihood of Autism.Journal of speech, language, and hearing research : JSLHR · 2024Article
- Can a nation-wide e-cohort of ADHD and ASD in childhood be established using Welsh routinely available datasets?BMJ open · 2023Article
- 16p11.2 deletion mice exhibit compromised fronto-temporal connectivity, GABAergic dysfunction, and enhanced attentional ability.Communications biology · 2023Article
- Anxiety in children and youth with autism spectrum disorder and the association with amygdala subnuclei structure.Autism : the international journal of research and practice · 2023Article
- The Use of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) as a Diagnostic Scale for Infants with Autism.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Autism spectrum disorders in boys at a major UK hemophilia center: prevalence and risk factors.Research and practice in thrombosis and haemostasis · 2023Article
- Occupational therapy incorporating dogs for autistic children and young people: Parent perspectives.The British journal of occupational therapy · 2022Article
- Evidence of increasing recorded diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in Wales, UK: An e-cohort study.Autism : the international journal of research and practice · 2022Article
- Autism-friendly eyecare: Developing recommendations for service providers based on the experiences of autistic adults.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2022Article
- Immortal time bias for life-long conditions in retrospective observational studies using electronic health records.BMC medical research methodology · 2022Article
- Temporal trends in annual incidence rates for psychiatric disorders and self-harm among children and adolescents in the UK, 2003-2018.BMC psychiatry · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo update UK studies begun in the early 1990s on the annual prevalence and incidence rates of autism in children; undertaken in response to a March 2012 press release, widely covered by the media, from the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) reporting that the autism prevalence rate in 2008 in 8-year-old US children was 1 in 88, a 78% increase from a CDC estimate in 2004. This finding suggested a continuation of the dramatic increase in children diagnosed as autistic, which occurred in the 1990s.
designPopulation study using the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD).
methodsAnnual autism prevalence rates were estimated for children aged 8 years in 2004-2010 by dividing the number diagnosed as autistic in each or any previous year by the number of children active in the study population that year. We also calculated annual incidence rates for children aged 2-8 years, by dividing the number newly diagnosed in 2004-2010 by the same denominators.
resultsAnnual prevalence rates for each year were steady at approximately 3.8/1000 boys and 0.8/1000 girls. Annual incidence rates each year were also steady at about 1.2/1000 boys and 0.2/1000 girls.
conclusionsFollowing a fivefold increase in the annual incidence rates of autism during the 1990s in the UK, the incidence and prevalence rates in 8-year-old children reached a plateau in the early 2000s and remained steady through 2010. Whether prevalence rates have increased from the early 2000s in the USA remains uncertain.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.