Evidence map›Paper›PMID 24120328›Full record

ArticleOphthalmology2013

Prediction of age-related macular degeneration in the general population: the Three Continent AMD Consortium.

Gabriëlle H S Buitendijk, Elena Rochtchina, Chelsea Myers, Cornelia M van Duijn, Kristine E Lee, Barbara E K Klein, Stacy M Meuer, Paulus T V M de Jong, Elizabeth G Holliday, Ava G Tan and 11 more

Erratum issuedOpen access · greenAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Ophthalmology, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 53 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
53citing papers in PubMed
10.9field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

53 citing papers in PubMed, 91 citations in OpenAlex.

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  5. Recent Updates on the Diagnosis and Management of Age-Related Macular Degeneration.Mayo Clinic proceedings. Innovations, quality & outcomes · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

  • Erratum issued
    Sivakumaran, Theru S [corrected to Sivakumaran, Theru A]
5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors at 8 institutions in 4 countries.

Gabriëlle H S BuitendijkDepartment of Ophthalmology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Elena RochtchinaCentre for Vision Research, Department of Ophthalmology and Westmead Millennium Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Chelsea MyersDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin.
Cornelia M van DuijnDepartment of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Kristine E LeeDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin.
Barbara E K KleinDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin.
Stacy M MeuerDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin.
Paulus T V M de JongDepartment of Ophthalmogenetics, Netherlands Institute of Neurosciences, An Institute of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW), Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Ophthalmology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Ophthalmology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Elizabeth G HollidayCentre for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia.
Ava G TanCentre for Vision Research, Department of Ophthalmology and Westmead Millennium Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
André G UitterlindenDepartment of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Aging, Netherlands Genomics Initiative, the Hague, The Netherlands.
Theru S SivakumaranDivision of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.
John AttiaCentre for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Department of Medicine, John Hunter Hospital and Hunter Medical Research Institute, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia.
Albert HofmanDepartment of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Aging, Netherlands Genomics Initiative, the Hague, The Netherlands.
Paul MitchellCentre for Vision Research, Department of Ophthalmology and Westmead Millennium Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Johannes R VingerlingDepartment of Ophthalmology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Sudha K IyengarDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.
A Cecile J W JanssensDepartment of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia.
Jie Jin WangCentre for Vision Research, Department of Ophthalmology and Westmead Millennium Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; Centre for Eye Research Australia, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Ronald KleinDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin.
Caroline C W KlaverDepartment of Ophthalmology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Electronic address: c.c.w.klaver@erasmusmc.nl.
Erasmus MC · NLThe University of Sydney · AUCase Western Reserve University · USCincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center · USEmory University · USJohn Hunter Hospital · AURoyal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences · NLUniversity of Newcastle Australia · AU

Funding

THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF AGE-RELATED OCULAR DISEASEU10EY006594 · NEI · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI KLEIN, RONALD · 1987 to 2018
$17.3M
NEI NIH HHS EY06594NEI NIH HHS U10 EY006594Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 085475/08/ZWellcome Trust 085475/B/08/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposePrediction models for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) based on case-control studies have a tendency to overestimate risks. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for late AMD based on data from population-based studies.

designThree population-based studies: the Rotterdam Study (RS), the Beaver Dam Eye Study (BDES), and the Blue Mountains Eye Study (BMES) from the Three Continent AMD Consortium (3CC).

participantsPeople (n = 10,106) with gradable fundus photographs, genotype data, and follow-up data without late AMD at baseline.

methodsFeatures of AMD were graded on fundus photographs using the 3CC AMD severity scale. Associations with known genetic and environmental AMD risk factors were tested using Cox proportional hazard analysis. In the RS, the prediction of AMD was estimated for multivariate models by area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). The best model was validated in the BDES and BMES, and associations of variables were re-estimated in the pooled data set. Beta coefficients were used to construct a risk score, and risk of incident late AMD was calculated using Cox proportional hazard analysis. Cumulative incident risks were estimated using Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis.

main outcome measuresIncident late AMD determined per visit during a median follow-up period of 11.1 years with a total of 4 to 5 visits.

resultsOverall, 363 participants developed incident late AMD, 3378 participants developed early AMD, and 6365 participants remained free of any AMD. The highest AUC was achieved with a model including age, sex, 26 single nucleotide polymorphisms in AMD risk genes, smoking, body mass index, and baseline AMD phenotype. The AUC of this model was 0.88 in the RS, 0.85 in the BDES and BMES at validation, and 0.87 in the pooled analysis. Individuals with low-risk scores had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.02 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01-0.04) to develop late AMD, and individuals with high-risk scores had an HR of 22.0 (95% CI, 15.2-31.8). Cumulative risk of incident late AMD ranged from virtually 0 to more than 65% for those with the highest risk scores.

conclusionsOur prediction model is robust and distinguishes well between those who will develop late AMD and those who will not. Estimated risks were lower in these population-based studies than in previous case-control studies.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAgedAged, 80 and overAustraliaCohort StudiesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGene Expression ProfilingGenotyping TechniquesHumansIncidenceMacular DegenerationMaleMiddle AgedNetherlandsPolymorphism, Single Nucleotide

Identifiers

PMID24120328
PMCPMC3986722
OpenAlexW1594542483

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.