ArticlePloS one2013
Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China.
Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Short-term effects of ambient temperature on non-external and cardiovascular mortality among older adults of metropolitan areas of Mexico.International journal of biometeorology · 2019Pooled it
- The short-term effects of different cold spell definitions on asthma outpatient visits in Lanzhou, China.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2025Article
- Effects of climate and environment on migratory old people with allergic diseases in China: Protocol for a Sanya cohort study.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Developing a Cold-Related Mortality Database in Bangladesh.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Sensors for Context-Aware Smart Healthcare: A Security Perspective.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- Virome in adult Aedes albopictus captured during different seasons in Guangzhou City, China.Parasites & vectors · 2021Article
- Associations between Perceptions and Measures of Weather and Walking, United States-2015.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2021Article
- Extreme temperatures and cardiovascular mortality: assessing effect modification by subgroups in Ganzhou, China.Global health action · 2021Article
- Effect of temperature on accidental human mortality: A time-series analysis in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in China.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Relationship between Air Temperature Parameters and the Number of Deaths Stratified by Cause in Gifu Prefecture, Japan.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and disease spectrum of emergency patients in two cities in China: Hong Kong and Shenzhen.World journal of emergency medicine · 2020Article
- Development of the Adjusted Wind Chill Equivalent Temperature (AWCET) for cold mortality assessment across a subtropical city: validation and comparison with a spatially-controlled time-stratified approach.BMC public health · 2019Article
- Excess winter mortality and morbidity before, during, and after the Great Recession: the Portuguese case.International journal of biometeorology · 2019Article
- Assessing Effect Modification of Excess Winter Death by Causes of Death and Individual Characteristics in Zhejiang Province, China: A Multi-Community Case-Only Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- Seasonal Variation in Hip Fracture Mortality.Geriatric orthopaedic surgery & rehabilitation · 2017Article
- The burden of COPD mortality due to ambient air pollution in Guangzhou, China.Scientific reports · 2016Article
- Article
- Effect of risk factors on the prevalence of influenza infections among children of slums of Dhaka city.SpringerPlus · 2016Article
- Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009-2013.Global health action · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundA significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented.
methodsThis study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution.
resultsThe mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52%) from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24%) from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%). We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037), but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40%) and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64%) in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively.
conclusionSimilar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate cold-related mortality for people living in warm climate.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.