ArticleObesity (Silver Spring, Md.)2014
A risk algorithm for assessing short-term mortality for obese black and white men and women.
Article in Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveTo develop and validate a mortality risk algorithm for obese black and white men and women to elucidate risk factors prognostic of short-term mortality among obese persons.
methodsProspective cohort study. Reasons for geographic and racial differences in stroke (REGARDS) study, is a cohort of black and white men and women aged ≥45 years. Obese (≥30 kg m(-2) ) participants in REGARDS (n = 11 288) were randomly assigned to the derivation data set or an independent validation set.
resultsDuring the mean follow-up period of 4.9 years, 8.9% (n = 504) in the derivation cohort and 8.7% (n = 492) in the validation cohort died. The best-fitting model based on data from the derivation cohort included demographic (age, sex), coronary heart disease (CHD) conditions (diabetes, systolic blood pressure, history of CHD), health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, alcohol use), and socioeconomic variables (income, use of physician services). The C-statistic when the model was applied to the validation cohort was 0.80. Observed and predicted rates of mortality were similar across deciles of mortality risk by race.
conclusionsA risk algorithm was established and validated to predict mortality among black and white obese subjects based on CHD risk factors, behavioral risk factors, and socioeconomic status.
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