ArticleEpidemiology and infection2014
Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Pooled it
- Resolving parameter uncertainty in SIR models through population-level serological surveillance: A synthetic study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Assessing bias in susceptible-infected-recovered estimation from aggregated epidemic data.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Inferring the spread of COVID-19: the role of time-varying reporting rate in epidemiological modelling.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Viral Pandemics of the Last Four Decades: Pathophysiology, Health Impacts and Perspectives.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Review
- Quantifying the annual incidence and underestimation of seasonal influenza: A modelling approach.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2020Article
- A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic.BMC medical research methodology · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.
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