ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2013
Modeling the impact of alternative strategies for rapid molecular diagnosis of tuberculosis in Southeast Asia.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comparison of two diagnostic intervention packages for community-based active case finding for tuberculosis: an open-label randomized controlled trial.Nature medicine · 2023Trial
- Diagnostic accuracy of 3 urine lipoarabinomannan tuberculosis assays in HIV-negative outpatients.The Journal of clinical investigation · 2020Trial
- Epidemiological trajectories and predictive modeling of latent tuberculosis prevalence in South Asia: an in-depth global burden of disease analysis (1990-2021) with advanced forecasting to 2050.Journal of clinical tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases · 2026Article
- Triage of Persons With Tuberculosis Symptoms Using Artificial Intelligence-Based Chest Radiograph Interpretation: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Field sales force model to increase adoption of a novel tuberculosis diagnostic test among private providers: evidence from India.BMJ global health · 2020Article
- Predicting the impact of patient and private provider behavior on diagnostic delay for pulmonary tuberculosis patients in India: A simulation modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2020Article
- Strategies for ending tuberculosis in the South-East Asian Region: A modelling approach.The Indian journal of medical research · 2019Article
- Rapid, point-of-care diagnosis of tuberculosis with novel Truenat assay: Cost-effectiveness analysis for India's public sector.PloS one · 2019Article
- Designing and Evaluating Interventions to Halt the Transmission of Tuberculosis.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2017Review
- Modeling the patient and health system impacts of alternative xpert® MTB/RIF algorithms for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.BMC infectious diseases · 2017Article
- Counting the lives saved by DOTS in India: a model-based approach.BMC medicine · 2017Article
- Tuberculosis.Lancet (London, England) · 2016Review
- The patient impact of point-of-care vs. laboratory placement of Xpert(®) MTB/RIF.The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease · 2015Article
- Defining the needs for next generation assays for tuberculosis.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2015Review
- Target product profile of a molecular drug-susceptibility test for use in microscopy centers.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2015Review
- Promoting operational research through fellowships: a case study from the South-East Asia Union Office.Public health action · 2015Article
- The Potential Impact of Up-Front Drug Sensitivity Testing on India's Epidemic of Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis.PloS one · 2015Article
- Mathematical Modelling and Tuberculosis: Advances in Diagnostics and Novel Therapies.Advances in medicine · 2015Review
- The impact of novel tests for tuberculosis depends on the diagnostic cascade.The European respiratory journal · 2014Article
- The importance of implementation strategy in scaling up Xpert MTB/RIF for diagnosis of tuberculosis in the Indian health-care system: a transmission model.PLoS medicine · 2014Article
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6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Novel diagnostic tests hold promise for improving tuberculosis (TB) control, but their epidemiologic impact remains uncertain. Using data from the World Health Organization (2011-2012), we developed a transmission model to evaluate the deployment of 3 hypothetical TB diagnostic tests in Southeast Asia under idealized scenarios of implementation. We defined diagnostics by their sensitivity for smear-negative TB and proportion of patients testing positive who initiate therapy ("point-of-care amenability"), with tests of increasing point-of-care amenability having lower sensitivity. Implemented in the public sector (35% of care-seeking attempts), each novel test reduced TB incidence by 7%-9% (95% uncertainty range: 4%-13%) and mortality by 20%-22% (95% uncertainty range: 14%-27%) after 10 years. If also deployed in the private sector (65% of attempts), these tests reduced incidence by 13%-16%, whereas a perfect test (100% sensitivity and treatment initiation) reduced incidence by 20%. Annually detecting 20% of prevalent TB cases through targeted screening (70% smear-negative sensitivity, 85% treatment initiation) also reduced incidence by 19%. Sensitivity and point-of-care amenability are equally important considerations when developing novel diagnostic tests for TB. Novel diagnostics can substantially reduce TB incidence and mortality in Southeast Asia but are unlikely to transform TB control unless they are deployed actively and in the private sector.
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