ArticleEvolution; international journal of organic evolution2013
Is HIV short-sighted? Insights from a multistrain nested model.
Article in Evolution; international journal of organic evolution, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 93 citations in OpenAlex.
- Attenuation of HIV severity by slightly deleterious mutations can explain the long-term trajectory of virulence evolution.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Within- and between-host evolutionary effects on viral oncogenicity.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- Adaptation of turnip mosaic virus toVirus evolution · 2024Article
- Open questions in the social lives of viruses.Journal of evolutionary biology · 2023Review
- Machine learning aided multiscale modelling of the HIV-1 infection in the presence of NRTI therapy.PeerJ · 2023Article
- The source of individual heterogeneity shapes infectious disease outbreaks.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Transmitted HIV-1 is more virulent in heterosexual individuals than men-who-have-sex-with-men.PLoS pathogens · 2022Article
- Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases.Virus evolution · 2021Article
- Superinfection and the evolution of an initial asymptomatic stage.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Within-Host Phenotypic Evolution and the Population-Level Control of Chronic Viral Infections by Treatment and Prophylaxis.Mathematics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- A theoretical framework for transitioning from patient-level to population-scale epidemiological dynamics: influenza A as a case study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality.Nature ecology & evolution · 2020Article
- Prisoners of war - host adaptation and its constraints on virus evolution.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2019Review
- Short-Sighted Virus Evolution and a Germline Hypothesis for Chronic Viral Infections.Trends in microbiology · 2017Review
- Predicting HIV-1 transmission and antibody neutralization efficacy in vivo from stoichiometric parameters.PLoS pathogens · 2017Article
- Modelling the evolution of HIV-1 virulence in response to imperfect therapy and prophylaxis.Evolutionary applications · 2017Article
- Effect of the Latent Reservoir on the Evolution of HIV at the Within- and Between-Host Levels.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
- Article
- Large Variations in HIV-1 Viral Load Explained by Shifting-Mosaic Metapopulation Dynamics.PLoS biology · 2016Article
- Prognostic Value of HIV-1 RNA on CD4 Trajectories and Disease Progression Among Antiretroviral-Naive HIV-Infected Adults in Botswana: A Joint Modeling Analysis.AIDS research and human retroviruses · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
An important component of pathogen evolution at the population level is evolution within hosts. Unless evolution within hosts is very slow compared to the duration of infection, the composition of pathogen genotypes within a host is likely to change during the course of an infection, thus altering the composition of genotypes available for transmission as infection progresses. We develop a nested modeling approach that allows us to follow the evolution of pathogens at the epidemiological level by explicitly considering within-host evolutionary dynamics of multiple competing strains and the timing of transmission. We use the framework to investigate the impact of short-sighted within-host evolution on the evolution of virulence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and find that the topology of the within-host adaptive landscape determines how virulence evolves at the epidemiological level. If viral reproduction rates increase significantly during the course of infection, the viral population will evolve a high level of virulence even though this will reduce the transmission potential of the virus. However, if reproduction rates increase more modestly, as data suggest, our model predicts that HIV virulence will be only marginally higher than the level that maximizes the transmission potential of the virus.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.