ArticleStatistical communications in infectious diseases2012
Episodic HIV Risk Behavior Can Greatly Amplify HIV Prevalence and the Fraction of Transmissions from Acute HIV Infection.
Article in Statistical communications in infectious diseases, 2012. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Recent HIV Infection: Diagnosis and Public Health Implications.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- An Approach to Quantifying the Interaction between Behavioral and Transmission Clusters.Viruses · 2022Article
- Modelling the impact of tailored behavioural interventions on chlamydia transmission.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Time for change: Transitions between HIV risk levels and determinants of behavior change in men who have sex with men.PloS one · 2021Article
- Contribution of high risk groups' unmet needs may be underestimated in epidemic models without risk turnover: A mechanistic modelling analysis.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Adjustment to acute or early HIV-1 infection diagnosis to prompt linkage to care and ART initiation: qualitative insights from coastal Kenya.Psychology, health & medicine · 2019Article
- Temporal Fluctuations in Behavior, Perceived HIV Risk, and Willingness to Use Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP).Archives of sexual behavior · 2018Article
- Sensitivity of joint contagiousness and susceptibility-based dynamic optimal control strategies for HIV prevention.PloS one · 2018Article
- The missing 27.AIDS (London, England) · 2017Article
- Differences in Risk Behavior and Demographic Factors Between Men Who Have Sex With Men With Acute and Nonacute Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in a Community-Based Testing Program in Los Angeles.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2017Article
- A network intervention that locates and intervenes with recently HIV-infected persons: The Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP).Scientific reports · 2016Article
- Screening for acute HIV infection in community-based settings: Cost-effectiveness and impact on transmissions.The Journal of infection · 2016Article
- Impact of Heterogeneity in Sexual Behavior on Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Transmission with Test-and-Treat Strategy.PLoS computational biology · 2016Article
- Dynamic Variation in Sexual Contact Rates in a Cohort of HIV-Negative Gay Men.American journal of epidemiology · 2015Observational
- Strong influence of behavioral dynamics on the ability of testing and treating HIV to stop transmission.Scientific reports · 2015Article
- Reassessment of HIV-1 acute phase infectivity: accounting for heterogeneity and study design with simulated cohorts.PLoS medicine · 2015Article
- Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2014Article
- A stochastic agent-based model of pathogen propagation in dynamic multi-relational social networks.Simulation · 2014Article
- A generating function approach to HIV transmission with dynamic contact rates.Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena · 2014Article
- HIV-1 transmission during early infection in men who have sex with men: a phylodynamic analysis.PLoS medicine · 2013Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
A deterministic compartmental model was explored that relaxed the unrealistic assumption in most HIV transmission models that behaviors of individuals are constant over time. A simple model was formulated to better explain the effects observed. Individuals had a high and a low contact rate and went back and forth between them. This episodic risk behavior interacted with the short period of high transmissibility during acute HIV infection to cause dramatic increases in prevalence as the differences between high and low contact rates increased and as the duration of high risk better matched the duration of acute HIV infection. These same changes caused a considerable increase in the fraction of all transmissions that occurred during acute infection. These strong changes occurred despite a constant total number of contacts and a constant total transmission potential from acute infection. Two phenomena played a strong role in generating these effects. First, people were infected more often during their high contact rate phase and they remained with high contact rates during the highly contagious acute infection stage. Second, when individuals with previously low contact rates moved into an episodic high-risk period, they were more likely to be susceptible and thus provided more high contact rate susceptible individuals who could get infected. These phenomena make test and treat control strategies less effective and could cause some behavioral interventions to increase transmission. Signature effects on genetic patterns between HIV strains could make it possible to determine whether these episodic risk effects are acting in a population.
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