ArticleJournal of the American College of Surgeons2013
Development and evaluation of the universal ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator: a decision aid and informed consent tool for patients and surgeons.
Article in Journal of the American College of Surgeons, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 7 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 705 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
The Effects of Pre-operative Point-of-Care Focused Cardiac Ultrasound on Patient Outcome - a Prospective, Randomized, Clinical Study (PreOPFOCUS)
Validation of Postoperative Mortality Prediction for Elective Major Surgical Operation With Existing Risk Calculators Based on Preoperative Parameters
Evaluation of the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator for Emergent Surgery in a Spanish Population
Clinical Evaluation of the Next Science SurgX Antimicrobial Wound Gel Impact on Surgical Site Complications
Clinical Evaluation of the Rate of Total Joint Infection 90-day After Surgery Following Irrigation With Next Science No-Rinse Solution vs SOC Alone
PAN-ICIS: Prospective Observational Study Evaluating the Intensive Care Infection Score for Early Detection of Infectious Complications After Pancreatic Resections
Value of Some Risk Scores in Predicting Cardiovascular Events After Gastrointestinal Surgery
Who cites it
705 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Ethical, legal, and sociocultural considerations in neural device explantation: a systematic review.Frontiers in neuroscience · 2025Pooled it
- Evaluation of venous thromboembolism risk assessment models for hospital inpatients: the VTEAM evidence synthesis.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2024Pooled it
- Evaluating the Influence of a Risk Calculator on Physician Risk Perception and Decision-Making in IPMN Surveillance: A Randomized Trial.Annals of surgical oncology · 2026Trial
- A multimodal prehabilitation class for Enhanced Recovery After Surgery: a pragmatic randomised type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial.British journal of anaesthesia · 2026Trial
- Cardiac index-guided therapy to maintain optimised postinduction cardiac index in high-risk patients having major open abdominal surgery: the multicentre randomised iPEGASUS trial.British journal of anaesthesia · 2024Trial
- Article
- Early prediction of severe morbidity after liver resection using serum albumin and ALBI-score in a mixed patient cohort.BMC surgery · 2026Article
- Development and Internal Validation of a Simplified Clinical Risk Score for Systemic Complications After Spine Surgery Using a Nationwide Japanese Registry: JOANR/JSSR-DB.Spine surgery and related research · 2026Article
- Bridging the Artificial Intelligence Translation Gap in Perioperative Pulmonary and Respiratory Complications: A Practical Framework for Institution-Level Implementation.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Article
- Preoperative Laboratory, Imaging, and Risk Assessment Before Elective Colorectal Cancer Resection: What the Clinician Must Remember.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- AI Risk Prediction Tools for Autologous Breast Reconstruction.Journal of surgical oncology · 2026Article
- Predicting Postoperative Complications in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Inflammatory Bowel Disease.World journal of surgery · 2026Article
- Development of a postoperative risk scoring tool for elderly patients with early gastric cancer: an exploratory prognostic score derivation study.Journal of gastrointestinal oncology · 2026Article
- Radiomics and anaesthetic planning: Quantitative imaging as a new frontier in preoperative risk assessment.World journal of radiology · 2026Review
- Perioperative safety and long-term outcomes of mesh repair in nonagenarians undergoing elective inguinal hernia repair: a single-center retrospective study.Hernia : the journal of hernias and abdominal wall surgery · 2026Article
- Evaluation of Small and Large Language Models for Calculation of the ASA Score and Charlson Comorbidity Index in Orthopedic Surgical Patients: A Retrospective Concordance Analysis.Bioengineering (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- EarlyPostoperative Lactate-to-Preoperative Albumin Ratio with In-Hospital Mortality After Elective Colorectal Cancer Surgery: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Integrating 'what matters' conversations into preoperative care: a qualitative evaluation of surgical team workflows and barriers.BMJ quality & safety · 2026Article
645 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAccurately estimating surgical risks is critical for shared decision making and informed consent. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services may soon put forth a measure requiring surgeons to provide patients with patient-specific, empirically derived estimates of postoperative complications. Our objectives were to develop a universal surgical risk estimation tool, to compare performance of the universal vs previous procedure-specific surgical risk calculators, and to allow surgeons to empirically adjust the estimates of risk. STUDY
designUsing standardized clinical data from 393 ACS NSQIP hospitals, a web-based tool was developed to allow surgeons to easily enter 21 preoperative factors (demographics, comorbidities, procedure). Regression models were developed to predict 8 outcomes based on the preoperative risk factors. The universal model was compared with procedure-specific models. To incorporate surgeon input, a subjective surgeon adjustment score, allowing risk estimates to vary within the estimate's confidence interval, was introduced and tested with 80 surgeons using 10 case scenarios.
resultsBased on 1,414,006 patients encompassing 1,557 unique CPT codes, a universal surgical risk calculator model was developed that had excellent performance for mortality (c-statistic = 0.944; Brier score = 0.011 [where scores approaching 0 are better]), morbidity (c-statistic = 0.816, Brier score = 0.069), and 6 additional complications (c-statistics > 0.8). Predictions were similarly robust for the universal calculator vs procedure-specific calculators (eg, colorectal). Surgeons demonstrated considerable agreement on the case scenario scoring (80% to 100% agreement), suggesting reliable score assignment between surgeons.
conclusionsThe ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator is a decision-support tool based on reliable multi-institutional clinical data, which can be used to estimate the risks of most operations. The ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator will allow clinicians and patients to make decisions using empirically derived, patient-specific postoperative risks.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.