ArticlePloS one2013
Impact of vaccination on 14 high-risk HPV type infections: a mathematical modelling approach.
Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 35 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effectiveness of various human papillomavirus vaccination strategies: A community randomized trial in Finland.Cancer medicine · 2021Trial
- An updated natural history model of cervical cancer: derivation of model parameters.American journal of epidemiology · 2014Trial
- HPV-Associated Field Cancerization: Molecular Alterations in Histologically Normal Tissues and Implications for Early Detection and Cancer Prevention.Current issues in molecular biology · 2026Review
- Predicting optimal impact interventions in the post-HPV vaccination world.International journal of cancer · 2026Review
- Modelling epidemiological and economics processes - the case of cervical cancer.Health economics review · 2025Review
- Different human papillomavirus types share early natural history transitions in immunocompetent women.International journal of cancer · 2022Article
- Analysis of cervical HPV infections among unvaccinated young adult women to inform vaccine strategies in this age group: the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial.Sexually transmitted infections · 2022Article
- Reduction in Vaccine HPV Type Infections in a Young Women Group (18-25 Years) Five Years after HPV Vaccine Introduction in Colombia.Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2022Article
- Differing Age-Specific Cervical Cancer Incidence Between Different Types of Human Papillomavirus: Implications for Predicting the Impact of Elimination Programs.American journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- Vaccination With Moderate Coverage Eradicates Oncogenic Human Papillomaviruses If a Gender-Neutral Strategy Is Applied.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Does Male Circumcision Reduce Women's Risk of Sexually Transmitted Infections, Cervical Cancer, and Associated Conditions?Frontiers in public health · 2019Article
- Impacts of human papillomavirus vaccination for different populations: A modeling study.International journal of cancer · 2018Article
- Different Challenges in Eliminating HPV16 Compared to Other Types: A Modeling Study.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2017Article
- Human Papillomavirus Vaccination at a Time of Changing Sexual Behavior.Emerging infectious diseases · 2016Article
- Vaccination Programs for Endemic Infections: Modelling Real versus Apparent Impacts of Vaccine and Infection Characteristics.Scientific reports · 2015Article
- Papillomaviruses: Viral evolution, cancer and evolutionary medicine.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2015Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The development of high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection to cervical cancer is a complicated process. We considered solely hrHPV infections, thus avoiding the confounding effects of disease progression, screening, and treatments. To analyse hrHPV epidemiology and to estimate the overall impact of vaccination against infections with hrHPVs, we developed a dynamic compartmental transmission model for single and multiple infections with 14 hrHPV types. The infection-related parameters were estimated using population-based sexual behaviour and hrHPV prevalence data from Finland. The analysis disclosed the important role of persistent infections in hrHPV epidemiology, provided further evidence for a significant natural immunity, and demonstrated the dependence of transmission probability estimates on the model structure. The model predicted that vaccinating girls at 80% coverage will result in a 55% reduction in the overall hrHPV prevalence and a higher 65% reduction in the prevalence of persistent hrHPV infections in females. In males, the reduction will be 42% in the hrHPV prevalence solely by the herd effect from the 80% coverage in girls. If such high coverage among girls is not reached, it is still possible to reduce the female hrHPV prevalence indirectly by the herd effect if also boys are included in the vaccination program. On the other hand, any herd effects in older unvaccinated cohorts were minor. Limiting the epidemiological model to infection yielded improved understanding of the hrHPV epidemiology and of mechanisms with which vaccination impacts on hrHPV infections.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.