ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2013
Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Evidence of sociodemographic heterogeneity across the HIV treatment cascade and progress towards 90-90-90 in sub-Saharan Africa - a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2020Pooled it
- Design of the HPTN 065 (TLC-Plus) study: A study to evaluate the feasibility of an enhanced test, link-to-care, plus treat approach for HIV prevention in the United States.Clinical trials (London, England) · 2017Trial
- Impact of increased diagnosis of early HIV infection and immediate antiretroviral treatment initiation on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in the Netherlands.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Analysis of the impact of treatments on HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis co-infected population under random perturbations.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Bayesian validation framework for dynamic epidemic models.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Exome Sequencing Reveals a Putative Role for HLA-C*03:02 in Control of HIV-1 in African Pediatric Populations.Frontiers in genetics · 2021Article
- Effect of the Test and Treat Strategy on Mortality Among HIV-Positive Adult Clients on Antiretroviral Treatment in Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2021Article
- Test-and-treat coverage and HIV virulence evolution among men who have sex with men.Virus evolution · 2021Article
- Rapid Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy Following Diagnosis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Among Patients with Commercial Insurance Coverage.Journal of managed care & specialty pharmacy · 2020Article
- Qualitative analysis of a stochastic SEITR epidemic model with multiple stages of infection and treatment.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid model: new tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- Mobility and its Effects on HIV Acquisition and Treatment Engagement: Recent Theoretical and Empirical Advances.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2019Review
- Estimating the incidence and diagnosed proportion of HIV infections in Japan: a statistical modeling study.PeerJ · 2019Article
- Measuring sexual behaviour in Malawi: a triangulation of three data collection instruments.BMC public health · 2018Article
- Modelling the dynamics of population viral load measures under HIV treatment as prevention.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
- A study on the dynamics of temporary HIV treatment to assess the controversial outcomes of clinical trials: An in-silico approach.PloS one · 2018Article
- The missing 27.AIDS (London, England) · 2017Article
- Test-and-treat approach to HIV/AIDS: a primer for mathematical modeling.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Review
- Phylodynamic analysis to inform prevention efforts in mixed HIV epidemics.Virus evolution · 2017Article
- Increasing HIV testing among hard-to-reach groups: examination of RAPID, a community-based testing service in Queensland, Australia.BMC health services research · 2017Article
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Recently, there has been much debate about the prospects of eliminating HIV from high endemic countries by a test-and-treat strategy. This strategy entails regular HIV testing in the entire population and starting antiretroviral treatment immediately in all who are found to be HIV infected. We present the concept of the elimination threshold and investigate under what conditions of treatment uptake and dropout elimination of HIV is feasible. We used a deterministic model incorporating an accurate description of disease progression and variable infectivity. We derived explicit expressions for the basic reproduction number and the elimination threshold. Using estimates of exponential growth rates of HIV during the initial phase of epidemics, we investigated for which populations elimination is within reach. The concept of the elimination threshold allows an assessment of the prospects of elimination of HIV from information in the early phase of the epidemic. The relative elimination threshold quantifies prospects of elimination independently of the details of the transmission dynamics. Elimination of HIV by test-and-treat is only feasible for populations with very low reproduction numbers or if the reproduction number is lowered significantly as a result of additional interventions. Allowing low infectiousness during primary infection, the likelihood of elimination becomes somewhat higher. The elimination threshold is a powerful tool for assessing prospects of elimination from available data on epidemic growth rates of HIV. Empirical estimates of the epidemic growth rate from phylogenetic studies were used to assess the potential for elimination in specific populations.
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