Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23974856›Full record

SynthesisOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2014

Mild morphometric vertebral fractures predict vertebral fractures but not non-vertebral fractures.

H Johansson, A Odén, E V McCloskey, J A Kanis

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2014. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
44citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

44 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Guideline
  3. Guideline
  4. Guideline
  5. European guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2019
    Guideline
  6. The Effect of Abaloparatide-SC on Fracture Risk Is Independent of Baseline FRAX Fracture Probability: A Post Hoc Analysis of the ACTIVE Study.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2017
    Trial
  7. FRAX and the effect of teriparatide on vertebral and non-vertebral fracture.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2015
    Trial
  8. Article
  9. Article
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  12. Article
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  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Review
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  19. Improved fracture risk prediction by adding VFA-identified vertebral fracture data to BMD by DXA and clinical risk factors used in FRAX.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2022
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

H JohanssonWHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
A Odén
E V McCloskey
J A Kanis

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/K006312/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

unlabelledIn this meta-analysis of the control arms of four phase 3 trials, mild vertebral fractures were a significant risk factor for future vertebral fractures but not for non-vertebral fracture.

introductionA prior vertebral fracture is a risk factor for future fracture that is commonly used as an eligibility criterion for treatment and in the assessment of fracture probability. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic significance of a morphometric fracture according to the severity of fracture.

methodsWe examined the control (placebo) treated arms of four phase 3 trials. Vertebral fracture status was graded at baseline in 7,623 women, and fracture outcomes were documented over the subsequent 20,000 patient-years. Fracture outcomes were characterised as a further vertebral fracture, a non-vertebral fracture or a clinical fracture (non-vertebral plus clinical vertebral fracture). The relative risk of fracture was computed from the merged β coefficients of each trial weighted according to the variance.

resultsMild vertebral fractures were a significant risk factor for vertebral fractures [risk ratio (RR) = 2.17; 95% CI = 1.70-2.76] but were not associated with an increased risk of non-vertebral fractures (RR = 1.08; 95% CI = 0.86-1.36). Moderate/severe vertebral fractures were associated with a high risk of vertebral fractures (RR = 4.23; 95% CI = 3.58-5.00) and a moderate though significant increase in non-vertebral fracture risk (RR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.38-1.94).

conclusionsPrior moderate/severe morphometric vertebral fractures are a strong and significant risk factor for future fracture. The presence of a mild vertebral fracture is of no significant prognostic value for non-vertebral fractures. These findings should temper the use of morphometric fractures in the assessment of risk and the design of phase 3 studies.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAged, 80 and overBone DensityBone Density Conservation AgentsClinical Trials, Phase III as TopicFemaleFractures, BoneHumansMiddle AgedMulticenter Studies as TopicOsteoporosis, PostmenopausalOsteoporotic FracturesPrognosisRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicRecurrenceBone Density Conservation Agents

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.