Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23942072›Full record

ArticleBritish journal of cancer2013

Prospective validation of the breast cancer risk prediction model BOADICEA and a batch-mode version BOADICEACentre.

R J MacInnis, A Bickerstaffe, C Apicella, G S Dite, J G Dowty, K Aujard, K-A Phillips, P Weideman, A Lee, M B Terry and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in British journal of cancer, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  12. Risks of breast or ovarian cancer in BRCA1 or BRCA2 predictive test negatives: findings from the EMBRACE study.Genetics in medicine : official journal of the American College of Medical Genetics · 2018
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  20. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Using Clinical Models and 77 Independent Risk-Associated SNPs for Women Aged Under 50 Years: Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2016
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

R J MacInnisCancer Epidemiology Centre, Cancer Council Victoria, Victoria, Melbourne, Australia.
A Bickerstaffe
C Apicella
G S Dite
J G Dowty
K Aujard
K-A Phillips
P Weideman
A Lee
M B Terry
G G Giles
M C Southey
A C Antoniou
J L Hopper

Funding

Breast Cancer Family Registry CohortUM1CA164920 · NCI · CANCER PREVENTION INSTIT OF CALIFORNIA · PI ANDRULIS, IRENE, BUYS, SAUNDRA S · 2012 to 2017
$12.7M
Genes, environment and breast cancer risk: The 15 year follow-up of the Prof-SC (Diversity Supplement)R01CA159868 · NCI · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI HOPPER, JOHN L, TERRY, MARY BETH · 2011 to 2015
$9.0M
Cancer Research UK 11174Cancer Research UK C12292/A11174NCI NIH HHS R01 CA159868NCI NIH HHS UM1 CA164920
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundBreast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) is a risk prediction algorithm that can be used to compute estimates of age-specific risk of breast cancer. It is uncertain whether BOADICEA performs adequately for populations outside the United Kingdom.

methodsUsing a batch mode version of BOADICEA that we developed (BOADICEACentre), we calculated the cumulative 10-year invasive breast cancer risk for 4176 Australian women of European ancestry unaffected at baseline from 1601 case and control families in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry. Based on 115 incident breast cancers, we investigated calibration, discrimination (using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves) and accuracy at the individual level.

resultsThe ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancers was 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-1.10). The E/O ratios by subgroups of the participant's relationship to the index case and by the reported number of affected relatives ranged between 0.83 and 0.98 and all 95% CIs included 1.00. The area under the ROC curve was 0.70 (95% CI 0.66-0.75) and there was no evidence of systematic under- or over-dispersion (P=0.2).

conclusionBOADICEA is well calibrated for Australian women, and had good discrimination and accuracy at the individual level.

Indexed as

Computer SimulationModels, StatisticalAdultAgedAlgorithmsAustraliaBRCA1 ProteinBRCA2 ProteinBreast NeoplasmsFamily HealthFemaleGenes, BRCA1Genes, BRCA2Genetic Predisposition to DiseaseHumansMiddle AgedBRCA1 ProteinBRCA1 protein, humanBRCA2 ProteinBRCA2 protein, human

Identifiers

PMID23942072
PMCPMC3778274

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Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-SA
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.