ArticleDemography2013
Extending the Lee-carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections.
Article in Demography, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo City, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Multiregional Population Forecasting: A Unifying Probabilistic Approach for Modelling the Components of Change.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2025Article
- A modal age at death approach to forecasting adult mortality.Population studies · 2025Article
- Forecasting Inequalities in Survival to Retirement Age by Socioeconomic Status in Denmark and Sweden.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2024Article
- Life expectancy, long-term care demand and dynamic financing mechanism simulation: an empirical study of Zhejiang Pilot, China.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Managing Mortality and Aging Risks with a Time-Varying Lee-Carter Model.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Greece since the 1960s: the mortality transition revisited: a joinpoint regression analysis.Journal of population research (Canberra, A.C.T.) · 2023Article
- What Can We Learn from the Functional Clustering of Mortality Data? An Application to the Human Mortality Database.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2021Article
- Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.Journal of official statistics · 2021Article
- Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2021Article
- Mortality Forecasting with the Lee-Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2021Article
- Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.Population studies · 2018Article
- Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction.Genus · 2018Article
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- Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.Demography · 2017Article
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- Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements.Demography · 2017Article
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- Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term.International journal of forecastingArticle
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3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In developed countries, mortality decline is decelerating at younger ages and accelerating at old ages, a phenomenon we call "rotation." We expect that this rotation will also occur in developing countries as they attain high life expectancies. But the rotation is subtle and has proved difficult to handle in mortality models that include all age groups. Without taking it into account, however, long-term mortality projections will produce questionable results. We simplify the problem by focusing on the relative magnitude of death rates at two ages (0 and 15-19) while making assumptions about changes in rates of decline at other ages. We extend the Lee-Carter method to incorporate this subtle rotation in projection. We suggest that the extended Lee-Carter method could provide plausible projections of the age pattern of mortality for populations, including those that currently have very high life expectancies. Detailed examples are given using data from Japan and the United States.
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