ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2013
Increased transmissibility explains the third wave of infection by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in England.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers.
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42 citing papers in PubMed, 70 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Comparing the Performance of Three Models Incorporating Weather Data to Forecast Dengue Epidemics in Reunion Island, 2018-2019.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- The Impact of Cold Ambient Temperature in the Pattern of Influenza Virus Infection.Open forum infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: A modelling analysis.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Investigation of CD4 and CD8 T cell-mediated protection against influenza A virus in a cohort study.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Responsive and agile vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in India.The Lancet. Global health · 2021Article
- SARS-CoV-2: lessons from both the history of medicine and from the biological behavior of other well-known viruses.Future microbiology · 2021Review
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- Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2: Detection by community viral surveillance.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2021Article
- Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2.PloS one · 2021Article
- SARS-CoV-2: Virology, epidemiology, immunology and vaccine development.Biologicals : journal of the International Association of Biological Standardization · 2020Article
- Excess influenza hospital admissions and costs due to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in England.Health economics · 2019Article
- Accounting for non-stationarity in epidemiology by embedding time-varying parameters in stochastic models.PLoS computational biology · 2018Article
- Evidence Synthesis for Stochastic Epidemic Models.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2018Article
- Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
- Detecting a Surprisingly Low Transmission Distance in the Early Phase of the 2009 Influenza Pandemic.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting.eLife · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
In the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the United Kingdom experienced two waves of infection, the first in the late spring and the second in the autumn. Given the low level of susceptibility to the pandemic virus expected to be remaining in the population after the second wave, it was a surprise that a substantial third epidemic occurred in the UK population between November 2010 and February 2011, despite no evidence for any significant antigenic evolution of the pandemic virus. Here, we use a mathematical model of influenza transmission embedded within a Bayesian synthesis inferential framework to jointly analyze syndromic, virological, and serological surveillance data collected in England in 2009-2011 and thereby assess epidemiological mechanisms which might have generated the third wave. We find that substantially increased transmissibility of the H1N1pdm09 virus is required to reproduce the third wave, suggesting that the virus evolved and increased fitness in the human host by the end of 2010, or that the very cold weather experienced in the United Kingdom at that time enhanced transmission rates. We also find some evidence that the preexisting heterologous immunity which reduced attack rates in adults during 2009 had substantially decayed by the winter of 2010, thus increasing the susceptibility of the adult population to infection. Finally, our analysis suggests that a pandemic vaccination campaign targeting adults and school-age children could have mitigated or prevented the third wave even at moderate levels of coverage.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.