ArticleBMC public health2013
Can informal social distancing interventions minimize demand for antiviral treatment during a severe pandemic?
Article in BMC public health, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010-2015).Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Pooled it
- Response to COVID-19 recommended preventive behavioral messages among Guraghe zone communities, South Ethiopia: using constructs of the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM).BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Psychological and Behavioral Responses in South Korea During the Early Stages of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Health and Economy in COVID-19 Era: A Plan for Reconstituting Long-Term Economic Security.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
- Measured voluntary avoidance behaviour during the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2015Article
- Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2015Article
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1 author.
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Abstract
backgroundIn the case of a pandemic, individuals may alter their behaviour. A dynamic model incorporating social distancing can provide a mechanism to consider complex scenarios to support decisions regarding antiviral stockpile size while considering uncertainty around behavioural interventions. We have examined the impact of social distancing measures on the demand for limited healthcare resources such as antiviral drugs from a central stockpile during a severe pandemic.
methodsWe used an existing age-structured model for pandemic influenza in Canada and biologically plausible scenarios for severe influenza transmission within the population. We incorporated data from published reports regarding stated intentions to change behaviour during a pandemic as well as the magnitude and duration of time that individuals expected to maintain the behavioural change. We ran simulations for all combinations of parameter values to identify the projected antiviral requirements in each scenario.
resultsWith 12 weeks of distancing, the effect is relatively small for the lowest R0 of 1.6 with a projected stockpile to treat 25.6% being required (IQR=21.7 - 28.7%) unless the proportion of people involved (81%) and magnitude of the behaviour change is large (69% reduction in contacts). If 24 weeks of distancing occurs, with only a low to moderate reduction in contacts (38% or less), it is not possible to bring treatment requirements below 20% regardless of what proportion of the population engages in distancing measures when transmissibility is high (R0=2.0; stockpile size=31%, IQR=29.2 - 33.5%).
conclusionsOur results demonstrate that the magnitude and duration of social distancing behaviours during a severe pandemic have an impact on the need for antiviral drugs. However, significant investments over a long period of time (>16 weeks) are required to decrease the need for antiviral treatment to below 10% of the total population for a highly transmissible viral strain (R0>1.8). Encouraging individuals to adopt behaviours that decrease their daily contact rate can help to control the spread of the virus until a vaccine becomes available however; relying on these measures to justify stockpiling fewer courses of treatment will not be sufficient in the case of a severe pandemic.
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