Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23860640›Full record

ArticleTheoretical medicine and bioethics2013

Problems with using mechanisms to solve the problem of extrapolation.

Jeremy Howick, Paul Glasziou, Jeffrey K Aronson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Theoretical medicine and bioethics, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Causal Pluralism in Medicine and its Implications for Clinical Practice.Journal for general philosophy of science = Zeitschrift fur allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie · 2024
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Mechanisms in clinical practice: use and justification.Medicine, health care, and philosophy · 2020
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Revolution and progress in medicine.Theoretical medicine and bioethics · 2015
    Article
  19. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Jeremy HowickDepartment of Primary Care Health Sciences, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford, New Radcliffe House, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK. jeremy.howick@phc.ox.ac.uk
Paul Glasziou
Jeffrey K Aronson

Funding

Medical Research Council
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Proponents of evidence-based medicine and some philosophers of science seem to agree that knowledge of mechanisms can help solve the problem of applying results of controlled studies to target populations ('the problem of extrapolation'). We describe the problem of extrapolation, characterize mechanisms, and outline how mechanistic knowledge might be used to solve the problem. Our main thesis is that there are four often overlooked problems with using mechanistic knowledge to solve the problem of extrapolation. First, our understanding of mechanisms is often (and arguably, likely to remain) incomplete. Secondly, knowledge of mechanisms is not always applicable outside the tightly controlled laboratory conditions in which it is gained. Thirdly, mechanisms can behave paradoxically. Fourthly, as Daniel Steel points out, using mechanistic knowledge faces the problem of the 'extrapolator's circle'. At the same time, when the problems with mechanistic knowledge have been addressed, such knowledge can and should be used to mitigate (nothing can entirely solve) the problem of extrapolation.

Indexed as

KnowledgePhilosophyProblem SolvingAnti-Arrhythmia AgentsEvidence-Based MedicineHumansRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicReproducibility of ResultsAnti-Arrhythmia Agents

Identifiers

PMID23860640
PMCPMC3722444

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.