ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2013
Predicting life expectancy for community-dwelling older adults from Medicare claims data.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Practical Assessment and Management of Vulnerabilities in Older Patients Receiving Chemotherapy: ASCO Guideline for Geriatric Oncology.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2018Guideline
- A systematic literature review of life expectancy prediction tools for patients with localized prostate cancer.The Journal of urology · 2015Pooled it
- Changes in Use, Cost, and Value of Breast Cancer Screening Among Older Women in the US.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- Development and Validation of the Healthy Longevity Index for Personalized Healthy Aging in Primary Care: Cross-National Retrospective Analysis.JMIR aging · 2025Article
- Application of Levi's Muscle Index in frailty assessment: comparison of bioimpedance measures among older adults.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Potential Overtreatment of DCIS in Patients with Limited Life Expectancy.Annals of surgical oncology · 2024Article
- Use of surveillance mammography among older patients with a history of breast cancer.Journal of geriatric oncology · 2024Article
- Trends in Locoregional Therapy in Older Women with Early-Stage Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer by Frailty and Life Expectancy.Annals of surgical oncology · 2024Article
- Estimating Breast Cancer Overdiagnosis After Screening Mammography Among Older Women in the United States.Annals of internal medicine · 2023Article
- Discontinuing Cancer Screening for Older Adults: a Comparison of Clinician Decision-Making for Breast, Colorectal, and Prostate Cancer Screenings.Journal of general internal medicine · 2022Article
- Predicting Life Expectancy to Target Cancer Screening Using Electronic Health Record Clinical Data.Journal of general internal medicine · 2022Article
- Estimating life expectancy adjusted by self-rated health status in the United States: national health interview survey linked to the mortality.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Life expectancy estimates based on comorbidities and frailty to inform preventive care.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2022Article
- Association Between Receipt of Cancer Screening and All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults.JAMA network open · 2021Article
- How High-Risk Comorbidities Co-Occur in Readmitted Patients With Hip Fracture: Big Data Visual Analytical Approach.JMIR medical informatics · 2020Article
- Screening Mammography Outcomes: Risk of Breast Cancer and Mortality by Comorbidity Score and Age.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2020Article
- Assessment of Clinician Decision-making on Cancer Screening Cessation in Older Adults With Limited Life Expectancy.JAMA network open · 2020Article
- Use of Lung Cancer Screening With Low-Dose Computed Tomography in the Medicare Population.Mayo Clinic proceedings. Innovations, quality & outcomes · 2019Article
- Article
- Medicare Accountable Care Organization Enrollment and Appropriateness of Cancer Screening.JAMA internal medicine · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Estimates of life expectancy are useful in assessing whether different prevention strategies are appropriate in different populations. We developed sex-specific Cox proportional-hazard models that use Medicare claims data to predict life expectancy and risk of death at up to 10 years for older adults. We identified a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries 66-90 years of age from the 5% Medicare claims data in 2000 (n = 1,137,311) and tracked each subject's vital status until December 31, 2009. Subjects were split randomly into training and validation samples. Models were developed from the training sample and validated by comparison of predicted to actual survival in the validation sample. The C statistics for the models including predictors of age and Elixhauser comorbidities were 0.76-0.79 for men and women for prediction of death at the 1-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year follow-up periods. More than 80% of subjects with <25% risk of death at 5, 7, and 10 years survived longer than the chosen cutoff years. More than 80% of subjects with ≥75% risk of death at 5, 7, and 10 years died by those cutoff years. The models overestimated the risk of death at 1 year for the high-risk groups. Sex-specific models that use age and Elixhauser comorbidities can accurately predict patient life expectancy and risk of death at 5-10 years.
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