Evidence map›Paper›PMID 23849267›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2013

Derivation and validation of a simple, accurate and robust prediction rule for risk of mortality in patients with Clostridium difficile infection.

Emma Butt, Jane A H Foster, Edward Keedwell, Julia E A Bell, Richard W Titball, Aneel Bhangu, Stephen L Michell, Ray Sheridan

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.7field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 31 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Management of severe and fulminantJournal of medical microbiology · 2025
    Review
  3. A Predictive Model to Identify ComplicatedOpen forum infectious diseases · 2023
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Validation of Clinical Risk Models for Clostridioides difficileAntimicrobial agents and chemotherapy · 2022
    Article
  6. External Validation and Comparison of Clostridioides difficile Severity Scoring Systems.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022
    Article
  7. Laboratory markers predictive of fulminantInfection prevention in practice · 2021
    Article
  8. Validation of a Clinical Risk-scoring Algorithm for Scrub Typhus Severity in South India.Indian journal of critical care medicine : peer-reviewed, official publication of Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine · 2021
    Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Evaluation of a risk score to predict futureHuman vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2019
    Observational
  12. Article
  13. Building a Better Crystal Ball for Predicting Complications of Clostridium difficile Infection.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2015
    Article
  14. Serum mannose-binding lectin concentration, but not genotype, is associated with Clostridium difficile infection recurrence: a prospective cohort study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2014
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Clostridium difficile outbreak caused by NAP1/BI/027 strain and non-027 strains in a Mexican hospital.The Brazilian journal of infectious diseases : an official publication of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Emma Butt
Jane A H Foster
Edward Keedwell
Julia E A Bell
Richard W Titball
Aneel Bhangu
Stephen L Michell
Ray Sheridan
University of Exeter · GBWest Midlands Deanery · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundClostridium difficile infection poses a significant healthcare burden. However, the derivation of a simple, evidence based prediction rule to assist patient management has not yet been described.

methodUnivariate, multivariate and decision tree procedures were used to deduce a prediction rule from over 186 variables; retrospectively collated from clinical data for 213 patients. The resulting prediction rule was validated on independent data from a cohort of 158 patients described by Bhangu et al. (Colorectal Disease, 12(3):241-246, 2010).

resultsSerum albumin levels (g/L) (P = 0.001), respiratory rate (resps /min) (P = 0.002), C-reactive protein (mg/L) (P = 0.034) and white cell count (mcL) (P = 0.049) were predictors of all-cause mortality. Threshold levels of serum albumin ≤ 24.5 g/L, C- reactive protein >228 mg/L, respiratory rate >17 resps/min and white cell count >12 × 10(3) mcL were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. A simple four variable prediction rule was devised based on these threshold levels and when tested on the initial data, yield an area under the curve score of 0.754 (P < 0.001) using receiver operating characteristics. The prediction rule was then evaluated using independent data, and yield an area under the curve score of 0.653 (P = 0.001).

conclusionsFour easily measurable clinical variables can be used to assess the risk of mortality of patients with Clostridium difficile infection and remains robust with respect to independent data.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalAnalysis of VarianceClostridioides difficileClostridium InfectionsDecision TreesFemaleHumansMalePredictive Value of TestsRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsROC Curve

Identifiers

PMID23849267
PMCPMC3733667
OpenAlexW1973139630

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.