ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2013
Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 74 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
74 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Impact of lockdown on key workers: findings from the COVID-19 survey in four UK national longitudinal studies.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2021Pooled it
- Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010-2015).Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Pooled it
- The paradox of neglecting changes in behavior: How standard epidemic models misestimate both transmissibility and final epidemic size.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- App-based epidemic game in a university campus reveals how risk perception and behavioral interventions shape disease transmission dynamics.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Model fit vs. predictive reliability: a case study of the 1978 influenza outbreak.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Impact of opinion dynamics on recurrent pandemic waves: balancing risk aversion and peer pressure.Interface focus · 2025Article
- Characterizing population-level changes in human behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Understanding Nash epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- The impact of temperature, humidity and closing school on the mumps epidemic: a case study in the mainland of China.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Human Behavior Changes on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the United States.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- How effective were Australian Quarantine Stations in mitigating transmission aboard ships during the influenza pandemic of 1918-19?PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Rational social distancing policy during epidemics with limited healthcare capacity.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
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- Modeling COVID-19 infection in high-risk settings and low-risk settings.Physics and chemistry of the earth (2002) · 2022Article
- The numerical solution of a mathematical model of the Covid-19 pandemic utilizing a meshless local discrete Galerkin method.Engineering with computers · 2022Article
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- Analytical investigation of compartmental models and measure for reactions of governments.The European physical journal. E, Soft matter · 2022Article
14 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Past influenza pandemics appear to be characterized by multiple waves of incidence, but the mechanisms that account for this phenomenon remain unclear. We propose a simple epidemic model, which incorporates three factors that might contribute to the generation of multiple waves: (i) schools opening and closing, (ii) temperature changes during the outbreak, and (iii) changes in human behaviour in response to the outbreak. We fit this model to the reported influenza mortality during the 1918 pandemic in 334 UK administrative units and estimate the epidemiological parameters. We then use information criteria to evaluate how well these three factors explain the observed patterns of mortality. Our results indicate that all three factors are important but that behavioural responses had the largest effect. The parameter values that produce the best fit are biologically reasonable and yield epidemiological dynamics that match the observed data well.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.