ArticlePloS one2013
Description and prediction of the development of metabolic syndrome: a longitudinal analysis using a markov model approach.
Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components according to altitude levels: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Scientific reports · 2024Pooled it
- Dynamic behavior of metabolic syndrome progression: a comprehensive systematic review on recent discoveries.BMC endocrine disorders · 2021Pooled it
- Multistate markov model analysis of metabolic syndrome progression in a community-based longitudinal cohort study.Diabetology & metabolic syndrome · 2026Article
- Incidence of metabolic syndrome among radiation workers exposed to low dose radiation: a national cohort study in Korea.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov Model.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2022Article
- Predicting the natural history of metabolic syndrome with a Markov-system dynamic model: a novel approach.BMC medical research methodology · 2021Article
- Factor Analysis of Metabolic Syndrome Components in a Population-Based Study in the South of Iran (PERSIAN Kharameh Cohort Study).Iranian journal of public health · 2021Article
- The dynamics of metabolic syndrome development from its isolated components among Iranian adults: findings from 17 years of the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS).Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2021Article
- High Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome and Its Related Demographic Factors in North of Iran: Results from the PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study.International journal of endocrinology · 2021Article
- Quantifying Dynamic Flow of Emergency Department (ED) Patient Managements: A Multistate Model Approach.Emergency medicine international · 2020Article
- Prediction of the development of metabolic syndrome by the Markov model based on a longitudinal study in Dalian City.BMC public health · 2018Article
- Longitudinal study of body mass index, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and hypertension in 60,000 men and women in Sweden and Austria.PloS one · 2018Article
- Article
- Dynamic development of metabolic syndrome and its risk prediction in Chinese population: a longitudinal study using Markov model.Diabetology & metabolic syndrome · 2018Article
- The dynamic behaviour of metabolic syndrome and its components in an eight-year population-based cohort from the Mediterranean.PloS one · 2017Article
- Natural course of metabolically healthy abdominal obese adults after 10 years of follow-up: the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2015Article
- Description and prediction of the development of metabolic syndrome in Dongying City: a longitudinal analysis using the Markov model.BMC public health · 2014Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDelineating the natural history of metabolic syndrome (MetS) is prerequisite to prevention. This study aimed to build Markov models to simulate each component's progress and to test the effect of different initial states on the development of MetS.
methodsMetS was defined with revised AHA/NHLBI criteria. Each reversible multistate Markov chain consisted of 8 states (no component, five isolated component states, 2-component state, and MetS state). Yearly transition probabilities were calculated from a five-year population-based follow up studywhich enrolled 2,247 individuals with mean aged 32.4 years at study entry.
resultsIn men, high BP or a 2-component state was most likely to initiate the progress of MetS. In women, abdominal obesity or low HDL were the most likely initiators. Metabolic components were likely to occur together. The development of MetS was an increasing monotonic function of time. MetS was estimated to develop within 15 years in 12.7% of young men with no component, and 2 components developed in 16.3%. MetS was estimated to develop in 10.6% of women with at the age of 47, and 2 components developed in 14.3%. MetS was estimated to develop in 24.6% of men and 27.6% of women with abdominal obesity, a rate higher than in individuals initiating with no component.
conclusionsThis modeling study allows estimation of the natural history of MetS. Men tended to develop this syndrome sooner than women did, i.e., before their fifth decade of life. Individuals with 1 or 2 components showed increased development of MetS.
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