ArticlePloS one2013
Using a Dynamic Model to Consider Optimal Antiviral Stockpile Size in the Face of Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty.
Article in PloS one, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mathematical modelling for pandemic preparedness in Canada: Learning from COVID-19.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2024Article
- Parallel simulation and optimization framework of supplies production processes for unconventional emergencies.PloS one · 2022Article
- Pandemic risk management: Resources contingency planning and allocation.Insurance, mathematics & economics · 2021Article
- Modelling community-control strategies to protect hospital resources during an influenza pandemic in Ottawa, Canada.PloS one · 2017Article
- Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM): a mathematical modeling approach to pandemic influenza planning.Epidemiology and infection · 2016Article
- Early vaccine availability represents an important public health advance for the control of pandemic influenza.BMC research notes · 2015Article
- Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2015Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe Canadian National Antiviral Stockpile (NAS) contains treatment for 17.5% of Canadians. This assumes no concurrent intervention strategies and no wastage due to non-influenza respiratory infections. A dynamic model can provide a mechanism to consider complex scenarios to support decisions regarding the optimal NAS size under uncertainty.
methodsWe developed a dynamic model for pandemic influenza in Canada that is structured by age and risk to calculate the demand for antivirals to treat persons with pandemic influenza under a wide-range of scenarios that incorporated transmission dynamics, disease severity, and intervention strategies. The anticipated per capita number of acute respiratory infections due to viruses other than influenza was estimated for the full pandemic period from surveys based on criteria to identify potential respiratory infections.
resultsOur results demonstrate that up to two thirds of the population could develop respiratory symptoms as a result of infection with a pandemic strain. In the case of perfect antiviral allocation, up to 39.8% of the population could request antiviral treatment. As transmission dynamics, severity and timing of the emergence of a novel influenza strain are unknown, the sensitivity analysis produced considerable variation in potential demand (median: 11%, IQR: 2-21%). If the next pandemic strain emerges in late spring or summer and a vaccine is available before the anticipated fall wave, the median prediction was reduced to 6% and IQR to 0.7-14%. Under the strategy of offering empirical treatment to all patients with influenza like symptoms who present for care, demand could increase to between 65 and 144%.
conclusionsThe demand for antivirals during a pandemic is uncertain. Unless an accurate, timely and cost-effective test is available to identify influenza cases, demand for antivirals from persons infected with other respiratory viruses will be substantial and have a significant impact on the NAS.
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