ArticleMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2013
Evidence synthesis for decision making 5: the baseline natural history model.
Article in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2013. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Transarterial Embolization Versus Manipulation Under Anesthesia and Arthroscopic Capsular Release for Refractory Adhesive Capsulitis-A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Cardiovascular and interventional radiology · 2026Pooled it
- In water or on land? A network meta-analysis of aquatic and land-based exercise interventions for pain and disability in chronic lower back pain.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Abrocitinib, tralokinumab and upadacitinib for treating moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2024Pooled it
- The efficacy and safety of direct-acting antiviral regimens for end-stage renal disease patients with HCV infection: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
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- Fracture risk in oral glucocorticoid users: a Bayesian meta-regression leveraging control arms of osteoporosis clinical trials.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2016Pooled it
- Multivariate Meta-Analysis of Preference-Based Quality of Life Values in Coronary Heart Disease.PloS one · 2016Pooled it
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- Lord's Paradox and two network meta-analysis models.Research synthesis methods · 2026Article
- Incorporating the possibility of cure into network meta-analyses: A case study from resected Stage III/IV melanoma.Research synthesis methods · 2026Article
- A Guide to an Iterative Approach to Model-Based Decision Making in Health and Medicine: An Iterative Decision-Making Framework.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Article
- Comparative effectiveness of neutralising monoclonal antibodies in high risk COVID-19 patients: a Bayesian network meta-analysis.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Network Meta-analysis on Disconnected Evidence Networks When Only Aggregate Data Are Available: Modified Methods to Include Disconnected Trials and Single-Arm Studies while Minimizing Bias.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022Article
- Interpreting and assessing confidence in network meta-analysis results: an introduction for clinicians.Journal of anesthesia · 2022Review
- Bayesian Network Meta-analysis of Multiple Outcomes in Dental Research.The journal of evidence-based dental practice · 2020Article
- Structural Design and Data Requirements for Simulation Modelling in HIV/AIDS: A Narrative Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2019Review
- Article
- Borrowing of strength from indirect evidence in 40 network meta-analyses.Journal of clinical epidemiology · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Most cost-effectiveness analyses consist of a baseline model that represents the absolute natural history under a standard treatment in a comparator set and a model for relative treatment effects. We review synthesis issues that arise on the construction of the baseline natural history model. We cover both the absolute response to treatment on the outcome measures on which comparative effectiveness is defined and the other elements of the natural history model, usually "downstream" of the shorter-term effects reported in trials. We recommend that the same framework be used to model the absolute effects of a "standard treatment" or placebo comparator as that used for synthesis of relative treatment effects and that the baseline model is constructed independently from the model for relative treatment effects, to ensure that the latter are not affected by assumptions made about the baseline. However, simultaneous modeling of baseline and treatment effects could have some advantages when evidence is very sparse or when other research or study designs give strong reasons for believing in a particular baseline model. The predictive distribution, rather than the fixed effect or random effects mean, should be used to represent the baseline to reflect the observed variation in baseline rates. Joint modeling of multiple baseline outcomes based on data from trials or combinations of trial and observational data is recommended where possible, as this is likely to make better use of available evidence, produce more robust results, and ensure that the model is internally coherent.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.