A signal detection analysis of gist-based discrimination of genetic breast cancer risk.

Pervasive biases in probability judgment render the probability scale a poor response mode for assessing risk judgments. By applying fuzzy trace theory, we used ordinal gist categories as a response mode, coupled with a signal detection model to assess risk judgments. The signal detection model is an extension of the familiar model used in binary choice paradigms. It provides three measures of discriminability-low versus medium risk, medium versus high risk, and low versus high risk-and two measures of response bias. We used the model to assess the effectiveness of BRCA Gist, an intelligent tutoring system designed to improve women's judgments and understanding of genetic risk for breast cancer. Participants were randomly assigned to the BRCA Gist intelligent tutoring system, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Web pages, or a control group, and then they rated cases that had been developed using the Pedigree Assessment Tool and also vetted by medical experts. BRCA Gist participants demonstrated increased discriminability for all three risk categories, relative to the control group; the NCI group showed increased discriminability for two of the three levels. This result suggests that BRCA Gist best improved discriminability among genetic risk categories, and both BRCA Gist and the NCI website improved participants' ability to discriminate, rather than simply shifting their decision criterion. A spreadsheet that fits the model and compares parameters across the conditions can be downloaded from the Behavior Research Methods website and used in any research involving categorical responses.